Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Theses

Développement d'un modèle statistique non stationnaire et régional pour les précipitations extrêmes simulées par un modèle numérique de climat

Abstract : Precipitation extremes plays a major role in flooding events and their occurrence as well as their intensity are expected to increase. It is therefore important to anticipate the impacts of such an increase to ensure the public safety and the infrastructure sustainability. Since climate models are the only tools for providing quantitative projections of precipitation, flood risk management for the future climate may be based on their simulations. Most of the time, the Extreme value theory is used to estimate the extreme precipitations from a climate simulation, such as the T-year return levels. The variance of the estimations are generally large notably because the sample size of the maxima series are short. Such variance could have a significant impact for flood risk management. It is therefore relevant to reduce the estimation variance of simulated return levels. For this purpose, the aim of this paper is to develop a non-stationary and regional statistical model especially suited for climate models that estimates precipitation extremes. At first, the non-stationarity is removed by a preprocessing approach. Thereafter, the spatial correlation is modeled by a Bayesian hierarchical model including an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field. The model has been used to estimate the 100-year return levels over North America from a simulation by the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The results show a large estimation variance reduction when using the regional model.
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [83 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01681244
Contributor : Abes Star :  Contact
Submitted on : Friday, January 12, 2018 - 3:00:27 PM
Last modification on : Friday, September 25, 2020 - 11:02:45 AM

File

JALBERT_2015_archivage.pdf
Version validated by the jury (STAR)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : tel-01681244, version 2

Collections

Citation

Jonathan Jalbert. Développement d'un modèle statistique non stationnaire et régional pour les précipitations extrêmes simulées par un modèle numérique de climat. Climatologie. Université Laval (Québec, Canada), 2015. Français. ⟨NNT : 2015GREAU032⟩. ⟨tel-01681244v2⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

263

Files downloads

420