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Le risque tsunami en France : contributions méthodologiques pour une évaluation intégrée par scénarios de risque.

Abstract : The existing approaches for the assessment of the tsunami risk mostly consist in assessing the hazard and the various vulnerabilities independently, in a segmented way. The various specialists involved in evaluating the risk components (geophysicists, modelers, geographers, economists, sociologists, etc.) work at different scales, speak their own language. Civil defense operationals somehow try to draw solutions for crisis management. The approach proposed in this thesis is to combine all of the above mentioned components to provide for an integrated tsunami risk assessment. It presents methods for the assessment of: (1) the history of the hazard and its modeling, based on various scenarios (hazard scenarios), (2) the human and structural stakes through a dynamic approach (vulnerabilities scenarios), and (3) the capacity of institutions in charge of civil defense to provide appropriate response (crisis management scenarios). The combination of these hypothetical situations provides a spatial assessment of potential damages under specific circumstances. The approach developed in this thesis is applied to three sites of important stakes, in continental France (Antibes) as in Overseas territories (La Réunion and Mayotte), and provides a method for a comprehensive assessment of tsunami risk. It provides operationals with tools and solutions for crisis management (selection of tsunami-shelters, modeling of evacuation times, etc.), as well as recommendations to limit the impact of future events (awareness and preparedness). This thesis makes the connection between hard sciences, social sciences and risk managers through an integrated and applied approach of risk assessment.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 21, 2011 - 4:45:48 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, October 19, 2021 - 4:06:55 PM


  • HAL Id : tel-00651617, version 2


Alexandre Sahal. Le risque tsunami en France : contributions méthodologiques pour une évaluation intégrée par scénarios de risque.. Géographie. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2011. Français. ⟨tel-00651617v2⟩



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