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Accumulation et instabilité dans une économie tirée par la demande

Abstract : This thesis reassesses the question of the instability of the real sector of the economy. Instability is inherent to capitalism because it is the result of two principles at the core of capital accumulation, namely the multiplier and the accelerator. However, this instability contradicts the relative stability of developed economies. Using an original procedure involving large scale simulations of parameters’ configurations and graphical representation, the first chapter confirms the diagnosis of instability of the canonical Kaleckian growth model. The second chapter looks for stabilizing factors that are omitted in the canonical version of the Kaleckian growth model. We show that amongst the factors considered, only government countercyclical spending improves the stability and the plausibility of the Kaleckian model. The third chapter focuses on the Kaleckian model’s structure and fundamental hypotheses. We show that these hypotheses, and in particular the definition of the period, participate to increase instability by amplifying the feedback between the multiplier and the accelerator. Having justified the use of multi-agent systems as an alternative to the reductionist microfoundations of Neoclassical economics, we develop a stock-flow consistent agent-based model characterized by the stabilizing behavior of firms. Using simulations, we show that the model can still be unstable, that instability is an emergent phenomenon and that public spending can stabilize the economy, and allow the model to exhibit regular business cycles. Using empirical data, the last chapter reassesses the joint effects of the endogeneity of firms’ capacity utilization target and the concept of stability corridor. On the basis of these two mechanisms and simulations, we present an exploratory narrative that has Minskian flavor in which stability is destabilizing and instability is stabilizing. This narrative, called the stalemate scenario, can partially explain the ongoing secular stagnation. We come to the conclusion that, if the intrinsic instability of capitalism can sometimes keep alow profile, thanks to institutional forms that allow its regulation, it always ends up reappearing, and it is the role of the state to act as the stabilizer of last resort.
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Florian Botte. Accumulation et instabilité dans une économie tirée par la demande. Economies et finances. Université de Lille, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018LILUA028⟩. ⟨tel-03561564⟩

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