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Indicateurs d’impacts des changements hydroclimatiques sur la gestion des réservoirs hydroélectriques

Abstract : The hydropower sector is sensitive to climate. The current challenge is to develop indicators based on climate services to facilitate decision-making at the regional and local levels in the context of climate change adaptation. This thesis aims at identifying relevant indicators to characterize the impacts of climate change on the management of hydropower reservoirs. We have built a hydroclimatic modelling chain applied to four French catchments and reservoirs of major energy interest (Dordogne at Bort-les-Orgues, Ain at Vouglans, Durance at Serre-Ponçon and Verdon at Castillon). Our study illustrates a conceptual approach to reservoir management that allow us to develop an indicator to characterize the flexibility of water-energy systems in future climates. The results obtained show the conditions under which water volumes are available (or not) to optimize hydropower production. Finally, we adapted a stochastic dynamic programming model for optimal reservoir management to be used with hydrological projections. The analysis highlighted that, even in the optimized context, climate change might impact the management of large reservoirs, especially those with a predominantly multi-use purpose and current nival regime of hydrological inflows. Our approach provides a new methodological framework for climate impact studies on the water-energy sector and for the future development of climate services.
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Submitted on : Friday, November 5, 2021 - 12:36:26 PM
Last modification on : Friday, February 4, 2022 - 9:50:03 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-03416740, version 1


Anthony Lemoine. Indicateurs d’impacts des changements hydroclimatiques sur la gestion des réservoirs hydroélectriques. Milieux et Changements globaux. Sorbonne Université, 2021. Français. ⟨NNT : 2021SORUS107⟩. ⟨tel-03416740⟩



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