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Robustness assessment in electro-nuclear scenario studies : evaluate the capacity of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor deployment strategies to adapt to changes of objectives

Abstract : During the recent years, the global attitude towards the nuclear energy has considerably changed, in particular in relation to the deployment of the 4th generation Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR). These changes reveal the substantial uncertainty in nuclear perspectives, subject to variable political decisions and economic estimations. Under these deep uncertainties, the adopted objective for the nuclear future may be abruptly disrupted. These objective changes may then create regrets on the strategy implemented beforehand.In this context, this thesis defines the robustness as the capacity of strategies to adapt to objective changes and develops a methodology about the robustness assessment of strategies regarding the uncertain nuclear future. The objective disruption is used as an approach to integrate the uncertainty of objective in the scenario studies. Two types of robustness are analyzed. The first one is static robustness, under the assumption that the disruption is still uncertain and the performances for all possible objectives are evaluated for each strategy. The other one is adaptive robustness, studied in the post-disruption adaptation scenarios from the prior trajectory of a given pre-disruption strategy. The comparison of these two types of robustness provide a global insight on strategy performances regarding the dynamics of uncertain disruption.With the dynamic fuel cycle simulator CLASS, this methodology of robustness assessment is implemented within two electro-nuclear scenario studies, based on hypothetical exploratory transitions of the French fleet. In the first one, strategies are evaluated at a predetermined time, which depends on the time horizon of scenario. In the second one, the evaluations are liberated from this dependency to encompass the inter-temporal consistency of assessments. Finally, this methodology is applied to a scenario study inspired from a French national strategy, which consider two possible options and the respective disruption from one to another: the plutonium multi-recycling in Pressurized Water Reactors, and the SFR deployment.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, September 21, 2021 - 12:42:13 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, September 23, 2021 - 3:33:24 AM

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Jiali Liang. Robustness assessment in electro-nuclear scenario studies : evaluate the capacity of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor deployment strategies to adapt to changes of objectives. Nuclear Theory [nucl-th]. Université Paris-Saclay, 2021. English. ⟨NNT : 2021UPASP055⟩. ⟨tel-03350474⟩

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