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Development of a data assimilation method for the calibration and continuous update of wind turbines digital twins.

Abstract : In the context of energy transition, wind power generation is developing rapidly. Meanwhile, in the framework of digitalization of the industry, the exploitation of collected data can be optimized by combination with numerical models. Such models can be complex and costly as they involve dynamic equations coupled with different physics. Furthermore, some of their input parameters related to the model properties as well as the external conditions can be badly known. These uncertainties affect the predictions obtained from model simulations and thus can impact the components lifetime for example. This dissertation focuses consequently on quantifying and reducing the input parameter uncertainties involved in an aero-servo-elastic wind turbine model. Nevertheless, the widely used methods in uncertainty quantification are not suitable in the present industrial context because of the stochastic nature of the external solicitation and the time consuming behavior of the simulator. Our main contributions are twofold.Firstly, we want to quantify the impact of the uncertainties on the fatigue behavior of a wind turbine. We propose a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methodology, based on the so-called Sobol' indices, for stochastic computer simulations. Such techniques, which often refer to the probabilistic framework and Monte Carlo (MC) methods, require a lot of calls to the numerical model. The uncertain input parameters are modeled by independent random variables gathered into a random vector and characterized by their probability distribution function (pdf). Variance-based GSA for time consuming deterministic computer models is usually performed by approximating the model by a surrogate regression. Among the different surrogates, we focus on Gaussian process (GP) regression characterized by its mean and covariance functions. One advantage of the GP regression metamodeling is to provide both a prediction of the numerical model and the associated uncertainty. In order to take into account the inherent randomness from stochastic simulations, we propose as a surrogate for the mean of the output of interest a GP regression with heteroscedastic noise. Then, this surrogate model is used to perform a sensitivity analysis based on classical MC estimation procedure.Secondly, we propose a Bayesian inference framework to carry out the calibration of influential input parameters from in situ measurements. It uses some measurements to update some prior pdfs on the unknown input parameters through the Bayes’ theorem. Recent decades have been marked by a simultaneous development of sensor technologies and internet of things capabilities. Thus, our research efforts have been directed toward inference techniques where the data are sequentially processed when new observations become available. In this context, model parameter inference can be carried out using data assimilation methods. We carry out the calibration using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Nevertheless, unlike the model properties having a static or slow time-variant behavior, the parameters related to the external conditions have a dynamic aspect. Thus, we propose to carry out the inference problem using an EnKF coupled with an analog forecasting strategy based on nearest neighbors to model the underlying dynamic model. However, such problems can be solved assuming that several conditions of well-posedness and identifiability are achieved. We exploit the relationship between non-identifiability of input parameters and total Sobol' indices. Indeed, for each measure output, we compute total Sobol indices associated to input parameters. If all the total Sobol' indices associated to a prescribed input parameter are "small", it means that this parameter is non-identifiable. Due to the functional nature of the measurements, we rely on a dimension reduction preliminary step through principal component analysis and then we compute an aggregated Sobol' index for each model parameter.
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Submitted on : Friday, July 23, 2021 - 11:23:10 AM
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Adrien Hirvoas. Development of a data assimilation method for the calibration and continuous update of wind turbines digital twins.. Modeling and Simulation. Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-..], 2021. English. ⟨NNT : 2021GRALM007⟩. ⟨tel-03297172⟩

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