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Mathematical modeling and simulation of the spatial dynamics of voles populations in eastern France

Abstract : The main objective of the thesis is to propose and analyze mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDE) to describe the spatial dynamics of two species of voles (Microtus arvalis and Arvicola terrestris), which are particularly monitored in Eastern France. The models that we have proposed are based on PDE which describe the evolution of the density of the population of voles as a function of time, age and position in space. We have two complementary approaches to represent the dynamics. In the first approach, we propose a first model that consists of a scalar PDE depending on time, age, and space supplemented with a non-local boundary condition. The flux is linear with constant coefficient in the direction of age but contains a non-local term in the directions of space. Moreover, the equation contains a second order term in the spatial variables only. We have demonstrated the existence and stability of weak entropy solutions for the model by using, respectively, the Panov's theorem of the multidimensional compensated and a doubling of the variables type argument. In the second approach we were inspired by a Multi Agent model proposed by Marilleau-Lang-Giraudoux, where the spatial dynamics of juveniles is decoupled from local evolution in each plot. To apply this model, we have introduced a directed graph whose nodes are the plots. In each node, the evolution of the colony is described by a transport equation with two variables, time and age, and the movements of dispersion, in space, are represented by the passages from one node to the other. We have proposed a discretization of the model, by finite volume methods, and noticed that this approach manages to reproduce the qualitative characteristics of the spatial dynamics observed in nature. We also proposed to consider a predator-prey system consisting of a hyperbolic equation for predators and a parabolic-hyperbolic equation for preys, where the prey's equation is analogous to the first model of the vole populations. The drift term in the predators' equation depends nonlocally on the density of prey and the two equations are also coupled via classical source terms of Lotka-Volterra type. We establish existence of solutions by applying the vanishing viscosity method, and we prove stability by a doubling of variables type argument. Moreover, concerning the numerical simulation of the first model in one-dimensional space, we obtain a finite volume discretization by using the upwind scheme and then validate the numerical scheme.The last part of my thesis work is a project in which I participated during a Summer school CEMRACS. The project was on a subject of biomathematics different from that of the thesis (an epidemiological model for salmonellosis). A new generic multi-scale modeling framework for heterogeneous transmission of pathogens in an animal population is suggested. At the intra-host level, the model describes the interaction between the commensal microbiota, the pathogen and the inflammatory response. Random fluctuations in the ecological dynamics of the individual microbiota and transmission at the inter-host scale are added to obtain a PDE model of drift-diffusion of pathogen distribution at the population level. The model is also extended to represent transmission between several populations. Asymptotic behavior as well as the impact of control strategies, including cleaning and administration of antimicrobials, are studied by numerical simulation.
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Submitted on : Monday, February 22, 2021 - 4:26:25 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, February 23, 2021 - 3:18:11 AM


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  • HAL Id : tel-03148955, version 1


Thi Nhu Thao Nguyen. Mathematical modeling and simulation of the spatial dynamics of voles populations in eastern France. Analysis of PDEs [math.AP]. Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2020. English. ⟨NNT : 2020UBFCD031⟩. ⟨tel-03148955⟩



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