Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation

Optimisation de la prévision et de la planification des activités d’un centre d’urgence hospitalier

Abstract : Our research focuses on the optimization of the activities of a hospital emergency department in order to improve the quality of services offered to patients. We have decomposed our approach into two areas: demand forecasting and optimization of activities. The first axis consists in forecasting the daily inflow of patients into the department. To this end, a new emergency classification of emergency patients, named EP, is introduced, taking into account the medical resources needed to treat the patient and post-emergency affiliation. We developed predictive models to forecast the daily inflow by EP class in the long-term and short-term. The second axis is to optimize service activities to minimize the average waiting time of patients in the service. To achieve this purpose, a system performance evaluation tool based on discrete event simulation was developed. This tool allowed us to evaluate the average waiting time of patients for different organizations of the service. Afterwards, we focused on optimizing the allocation of human resources (doctors, interns, nurses and caregivers). A meta-heuristic approach has been developed to solve the problem, since the objective function is not linear, which is based on the coupling of a genetic algorithm with the simulation model to evaluate the solutions. This approach also optimizes service in the future by injecting patient forecasts into the simulator
Document type :
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [212 references]  Display  Hide  Download
Contributor : Abes Star :  Contact
Submitted on : Tuesday, October 13, 2020 - 11:41:09 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, October 14, 2020 - 3:29:33 AM


Version validated by the jury (STAR)


  • HAL Id : tel-02965420, version 1




Mohamed Afilal. Optimisation de la prévision et de la planification des activités d’un centre d’urgence hospitalier. Recherche opérationnelle [cs.RO]. Université de Technologie de Troyes, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017TROY0035⟩. ⟨tel-02965420⟩



Record views


Files downloads