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Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sahel

Abstract : This thesis deals with the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in the Sahel zone that we define as a region comprising 12 countries and 52 agroecological zones within these countries. The study area covers Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan and Chad. The situation in this part of the world is strongly impacted by climate change because agriculture, largely rainfed, plays an important economic role there. Climate change is then expected to have an impact on food production, which will make food availability and access even more difficult.From a theoretical point of view, this thesis aims to feed the literature on climate change and its effects on agricultural sectors in the world, particularly in the Sahel, by focusing on agroecological zones. From an empirical point of view and by using a range of statistical and econometric techniques, this thesis takes into account the agricultural and climatic characteristics of each country and agroecological zones of the Sahel.In the first chapter, we deal with the issue of climate change and variability based on precipitation and temperature during the different seasons of the countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel. Using a linear regression model and an endogenous structural change model, we show that countries and agroecological zones are indeed affected by climate change and that the year 1980 is an essential point in explaining this phenomenon for both scales. We also show that desert and arid areas suffered a large number of shocks from 1901 to 2016, with the exception of Nigeria, where wetlands and non-desert areas suffered several shocks.In the second chapter, we study the relationship between climate change and variability, measured by temperature and precipitation conditions in the rainy seasons, and agricultural production at country level and at the level of agroecological zones in the Sahel. Focusing on an agricultural production index and five cereals (corn, millet, sorghum, wheat and rice), we study this relationship using an original database with socio-economic and climate variables. On the basis of an estimated agricultural production function for the 1961-2016 period, we show that precipitation and average temperatures during the growing season have very heterogeneous effects on agricultural production according to the cereal and agricultural zone, depending specific needs and stress linked to the cereal and agronomic and climatic conditions of each zone.In the third chapter, we analyze the link between climate change and food security in the Sahel countries. Based on a multidimensional analysis of food security and a panel data model with delayed climate variables of interest, we show that drought and floods negatively affect food security. In the presence of these climatic disasters, floods cause more damage to food security. Socioeconomic factors also play an important role in food security. Our results show that the low level of economic development, population growth and inflation of food prices do not guarantee food security. In addition, the absence of conflicts and political stability are important levers for improving the food security situation of the populations.
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Oudah Yobom. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sahel. Economics and Finance. Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2020. English. ⟨NNT : 2020UBFCG001⟩. ⟨tel-02928098⟩

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