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Variabilité et tendances des paramètres météorologiques en Guinée : analyse des forçages par méthodes numériques

Abstract : In a context of climate change, the variability of meteorological parameters remains very sensitive to our environment. This work is part of a global perspective of the analysis of annual, inter-annual and spatial variability of meteorological parameters in Guinea. It is based on the exploitation of long series of observations (57 years) measured by 12 meteorological stations spread over all regions of Guinea. The objective of this thesis is to investigate these original series in order to improve our understanding of climate variability and associated geophysical processes. The approach developed in this PhD is based on a climatological analysis, followed by decanal trend assessment by the use of very recent and adapted numerical methods. The study shows that temperature variability is dominated by annual and semi-annual seasonal cycles, while rainfall variability is characterized by a predominantly annual cycle. The results have shown a significant increase in temperature trends and a decrease in precipitations since late 1960s. It was also found that the spatial distributions of temperature and rainfall have negative and positive latitudinal gradients equatorward, respectively. However, rainfall records remain very high in the coastal region and in the south-eastern part of the country. In addition to the semi-annual and annual oscillations, the investigated forcings do contribute to temperature and rainfall variability on different spatial and temporal scales. Among these forcings, we examined and quantified, for all regions, the contributions of Atlantic Niño, the Niño 3.4 Index, the AMM Index, the TNA Index and the Solar Flux. As for the long-term trend analysis, our results show that temperatures have globally increased from +0.04 to +0.21°C/decade. The northern half and the southern region of Guinea recorded the highest warming, followed by the coastal region which is under coastal, topographical and urbanization effects.
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René Tato Loua. Variabilité et tendances des paramètres météorologiques en Guinée : analyse des forçages par méthodes numériques. Océan, Atmosphère. Université de la Réunion, 2020. Français. ⟨NNT : 2020LARE0003⟩. ⟨tel-02924849⟩

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