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Modélisation prévisionnelle de la consommation énergétique dans l’industrie pour son intégration en tant que ressource effaçable à court terme : application au contexte français

Abstract : Demand response has been identified as one of the solutions to overcome the problems associated with peaks in electricity consumption, intermittency of renewable energy and network congestion. This thesis focuses on the integration of industrial electricity consumptions as short-term demand response resources in the context of a supply-demand balancing mechanism in France. Among the various sectors, industrial electricity consumptions are of particular interest because of their orders of magnitude. In order to integrate these consumptions to the supply-demand balance, it is necessary forecast their behavior in the short term and to evaluate the reliability of these forecasts. Thus, different short-term load forecasting methods adapted to the data and to the operational context are implemented on different sets of industrial consumptions data at two different consumption levels: the industrial site and the end-point equipment consumption. Performance indicators adapted to operational constraints, called "trust factors" are proposed and calculated to evaluate the performance of the forecasting methods. These trust factors are estimated for different hours of the day for all the different studied industrial sites and workshops. The estimated trust are used to assess the risks for a specific consumption to not to respect the operational constraints at a moment a forecast is simulated. Demand response is considered to become one of the elements to be implemented in order to achieve a successful energy transition through a more flexible power system.
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José Blancarte Hernandez. Modélisation prévisionnelle de la consommation énergétique dans l’industrie pour son intégration en tant que ressource effaçable à court terme : application au contexte français. Autre. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne, 2015. Français. ⟨NNT : 2015EMSE0783⟩. ⟨tel-02918160⟩

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