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Distribution de Processus Décisionnels Markoviens pour une gestion prédictive d’une ressource partagée : application aux voies navigables des Hauts-de-France dans le contexte incertain du changement climatique

Abstract : The work of this thesis aims to introduce and implement a predictive management under uncertainties of the water resource for inland waterway networks. The objective is to provide a water management plan to optimize the navigation conditions of the entire supervised network over a specified horizon. The expected solution must render the network resilient to probable effects of the climate change and changes in waterway traffic. Firstly, a generic modeling of a resource distributed on a network is proposed. This modeling, based on Markovian Decision Processes, takes into account the numerous uncertainties affecting considered networks. The objective of this modeling is to cover all possible cases, foreseen or not, in order to have a resilient management of those networks. The second contribution consists in a distribution of the model over several agents to facilitate the scaling. This consists of a repartition of the network's control capacities among the agents. Thus, each agent has only local knowledge of the supervised network. As a result, agents require coordination to provide an efficient management of the network. An iterative resolution, with exchanges of temporary plans from each agent, is used to obtain local management policies for each agent. Finally, experiments were carried out on realistic and real networks of the French waterways to observe the quality of the solutions produced. Several different climatic scenarios have been simulated to test the resilience of the produced policies.
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  • HAL Id : tel-02899500, version 1

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Guillaume, Louis, Florent Desquesnes. Distribution de Processus Décisionnels Markoviens pour une gestion prédictive d’une ressource partagée : application aux voies navigables des Hauts-de-France dans le contexte incertain du changement climatique. Intelligence artificielle [cs.AI]. Ecole nationale supérieure Mines-Télécom Lille Douai, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018MTLD0001⟩. ⟨tel-02899500⟩

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