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Combinaisons des approches statistiques et mécaniques pour l’évaluation du risque lié aux effondrements d’ouvrages souterrains : Application aux ruisseaux couverts du bassin minier cévenol

Abstract : Covered stream tunnels are old masonry hydraulic tunnels, covered with tailings, over which various infrastructures were constructed. Recent and unforeseen collapses have raised the issue of the lack of knowledge on the risk assessment of these tunnel collapses. In this thesis, we have proposed a methodology to tackle such an issue. Because of the intensity of the phenomenon, the study focused on determining the probability of occurrence of this identified hazard and the stake value.The application of the multi-criteria analysis enabled to propose a risk-scoring model based on the issues and the disorders involved. As the model fails to retroactively predict the collapses observed on 28 structures, the study then focused on estimating the probability of the collapse occurrence.A statistical analysis has enabled us to estimate that the collapses encountered in these tunnels were related to the collapse of the sidewalls (83% of the total number of collapses) and the tunnel exit collapse (17% of the total number of collapses). The application of the logistic regression method, by using the geometrical features and the disorders observed in-situ, enabled to evaluate retroactively, with an average F1-score of 84 %, the probability of occurrence of these two types of collapses.In order to consider the degradation of the mechanical properties of masonry, we have proposed a meta-model that could estimate a safety coefficient of the sidewalls from numerical models. The approach was evaluated retroactively and resulted in an F1 score of 82%.All of these approaches were then aggregated and used to assess the collapse risk of 28 underground tunnels virtually divided into 180 sections. The methodology developed and the results obtained will enable us to prioritize preventive actions (structural repairs, securing potential areas of collapse and securing people).
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Submitted on : Wednesday, July 8, 2020 - 5:23:12 PM
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Thibault Jeannin. Combinaisons des approches statistiques et mécaniques pour l’évaluation du risque lié aux effondrements d’ouvrages souterrains : Application aux ruisseaux couverts du bassin minier cévenol. Autre. IMT - MINES ALES - IMT - Mines Alès Ecole Mines - Télécom, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019EMAL0012⟩. ⟨tel-02894092⟩

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