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Modélisation de la dynamique et du contrôle de la fièvre catarrhale ovine en France

Abstract : Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) spread throughout France in 2007/09 and had a strong economic impact. Vaccination, first mandatory then voluntary, allowed regaining a disease-free status in December 2012, but a new outbreak occurred in August 2015. BTV-8 may have kept circulating all along. The aim of this thesis was to clarify the epidemiology of BTV-8 from emergence to re-emergence and to provide a critical analysis of surveillance and control measures, using various modelling tools. Using risk factor analyses, we characterized the immunity of cattle at the time of re-emergence and detected low-level BTV-8 circulation prior to that date. Using catalytic models developed in a Bayesian context, we added a time dimension, we separated the contribution of seroconversion mechanisms (infection and vaccination) and transmission mechanisms (vector-borne and transplacental), we estimated the burden of infection and the probability of vertical transmission (> 50% in 2016), and we assessed the coverage of voluntary vaccination (poorly implemented in 2011/12, with regional contrasts). We synthesized all available information and developed a mathematical, dynamic and stochastic model, using contact networks to represent different types of host and vector movements. We identified the control measures that had been effective (mandatory vaccination, trade restrictions), and suggested alternative ones (targeting emergency vaccination ahead of the front, controlling movements on pastures). Finally, we provided arguments in favor of a continuous and undetected BTV-8 circulation.
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Noémie Courtejoie. Modélisation de la dynamique et du contrôle de la fièvre catarrhale ovine en France. Médecine humaine et pathologie. Université Paris-Est, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019PESC0013⟩. ⟨tel-02502927⟩



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