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Analyse de la concurrence intermodale : l'évaluation de la qualité des dessertes ferroviaires et aériennes

Abstract : The high speed line (Ligne à Grande Vitesse Sud Europe Atlantique) that has been operating since July 2, 2017, reduced train travel time by 1 hour on the Paris-Bordeaux line. The expected impacts are an improvement of the competitiveness of rail transport and a modal shift from plane to train. In this thesis, we are interested in the effects of this new railway infrastructure on travellers’ modal choice behaviour. In particular, we are interested in the quality of transport timetable and their impact on the travel behaviour.The quality of transport timetable is an important issue for the various relevant stakeholders. The total number of trains or intermediate stops are not sufficient for a relevant evaluation. The objective of this doctoral thesis is to demonstrate, from the theoretical and empirical point of view, that the relevant approach must be based on activity programs and not just on transport supply.We presented indicators for a better evaluation of the effects related to the quality of transport timetable on travellers’ modal choice. The analysis begins with indicators that provide complementary information to the standard indicators to a more sophisticated model that are able to take into account the characteristics of opportunities in destination. We directed our research to a disaggregated approach while ensuring the measurability of the indicators.Two methods are presented in this thesis: indicators of useful time at destination and the combined modal choice – schedule choice model. Using the first method, we improve our knowledge of the effects related to the quality of transport timetable with a new module integrated in modal choice models. With the second method, we study the research problem with a combined model structure that explains both the modal choice and the schedule choice. These methods are developed on the basis of discrete choice models.We performed an econometric analysis of passenger demand on the Paris - Bordeaux route with "passenger" survey data. We show that the variables specifically constructed for the evaluation of the quality of transport timetable are relevant to explain the travellers’ modal choice.This thesis is organized as follows:In the first part, we present the competition issues in the transport market. Among the different forms of competition, we are interested in intermodal competition. It helps us to understand what is involved in competition questions in the transport market and why this issue is important. This theoretical part includes a literature review that helped us to elaborate our research problem.We present, in the second part, our methods to study the quality of transport timetable: the useful time at destination and the combined modal choice – schedule choice model. In this methodological part, we also present the principles based on discrete choice theory that are the basis of our analysis.The context of our case study, the data and the results are presented in the third part. The advantages and disadvantages of our method are presented in this part of this thesis.
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Minghui Chen. Analyse de la concurrence intermodale : l'évaluation de la qualité des dessertes ferroviaires et aériennes. Economies et finances. Université de Lyon, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019LYSE2080⟩. ⟨tel-02494016⟩

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