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Urban growth simulations in order to represent the impacts of constructions and environmental constraints on urban sprawl

Abstract : The process of urbanization occurs mainly due to population growth, rural exodus to cities and life style that often induces the nearly irreversible changes. It increases the artificial lands, which affect the biodiversity, ecosystems, urban climate, and reduces land for agriculture and natural areas. The focus of this thesis is to simulate diverse urbanization scenarios in order to improve public policies decision making. To do this, the SLEUTH model is used in order to investigate the impacts of buildings and environmental rules on urban sprawl. In the method used, the SLEUTH model integrates more topographic data, urban tissue and demographic data, including geographical features and the environmental constraints. The main challenge of in this research is to propose different urban sprawl scenarios for different kind of environmental rules while taking into account the population demand or at least population growth estimation. The SLEUTH model is one of the well-known cellular automata simulation models, which matches the dynamic simulation of urban expansion and adapts to morphological model of the urban configuration. SLEUTH, like many other urban growth simulation methods, considers only the historical data. Although, the impacts of population growth and urban tissue are implicitly considered during the calibration phase on the historical urban maps, changes in population growth rate or in building types cannot be included in its simulations. Moreover the SLEUTH results are limited to raster data that are difficult to interpret for decision makers. The results are some pixels on which urbanization is supposed to occur which do not make sense from urbanism point of view. Therefore, our research aims to diversify the simulation possibilities integrating explicitly factors of building types according to population growth and providing visual methods to view urban growth scenario results in 2D and even 3D. In order to improve the SLEUTH results, different 2D urban growth simulation scenarios have been defined based on the SLEUTH model by adding buildings type and the estimation of the population growth as urban fabric factors. Each simulation corresponds to policies that are more or less restrictive of spaces considering what these territories can accommodate as a type of building and as a global population. In addition, the simulations can help the user to protect the desired lands such as the environmental spaces from urbanization. These scenarios show the simulation capabilities of the model and make it possible to improve our understanding of an urban sprawl simulation.Three different case studies with various sizes and populations are used including Toulouse metropolitan, Saint Sulpice la Pointe and Rieucros to provide a view of the effectiveness of the proposed method on several scales. The results evaluation indicates that the proposed method makes different simulations that correspond to different land priorities and constraints. It helps to see which land can be protected (where) and how building type can be used to constrain urban sprawl (how much). A 3D representation for each prospective urban growth simulations is provided in order to facilitates the interpretation of the SLEUTH simulation and differentiate the scenarios. The findings allow having different images of the city of tomorrow for applying it to urban policies
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Mojtaba Eslahi. Urban growth simulations in order to represent the impacts of constructions and environmental constraints on urban sprawl. Modeling and Simulation. Université Paris-Est, 2019. English. ⟨NNT : 2019PESC2063⟩. ⟨tel-02493929⟩

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