B. Dewitte and K. Takahashi, Diversity of moderate El Niño events evolution: role of air-sea interactions in the 607 eastern tropical Pacific, Climate Dynamics, 2017.

B. Dewitte, S. Thual, S. Yeh, S. An, B. Moon et al., , p.609, 2009.

, Temperature in the Vicinity of the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline in SODA: Role of Equatorial Wave Dynamics 610 and ENSO Asymmetry, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.5783-5795

P. N. Dinezio, A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, B. P. Kirtman et al., Climate response of the 612 equatorial pacific to global warming, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.4873-4892, 2009.

P. N. Dinezio and C. Deser, Nonlinear Controls on the Persistence of La Niña, Journal of Climate, vol.27, p.7355, 2014.

D. Dommenget, T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El 617 Niño southern oscillation, Climate Dynamics, vol.40, pp.2825-2847, 2013.

D. Dommenget and Y. Yu, The effects of remote SST forcings on ENSO dynamics, variability and diversity, 2017.

, Climate Dynamics, vol.49, pp.2605-2624

P. R. Gent, G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke et al.,

M. Rasch, P. H. Vertenstein, Z. Worley, M. Yang, and . Zhang, The Community Climate System Model 622 Version 4, Journal of Climate, vol.24, pp.4973-4991, 2011.

F. S. Graham, A. T. Wittenberg, J. N. Brown, S. J. Marsland, and N. J. Holbrook, Understanding the double 624 peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs, Climate Dynamics, vol.48, pp.2045-2063, 2017.

Y. Ham and J. Kug, 2012: How well do current climate models simulate two types of El Niño? Climate 626

, Dynamics, vol.39, pp.383-398

E. C. Hunke and W. Lipscomb, CICE: the Los Alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual 628 version, 2010.

J. W. Hurrell, M. M. Holland, P. R. Gent, S. Ghan, J. E. Kay et al., , p.630

K. Lindsay, W. H. Lipscomb, M. C. Long, N. Mahowald, D. R. Marsh et al.,

D. Vertenstein, W. D. Bader, J. J. Collins, J. Hack, S. Kiehl et al., The Community Earth System 632 Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research. Bulletin of the, vol.94, p.1360, 2013.

Y. Hwang and D. M. Frierson, Link between the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone problem and 635 cloud biases over the Southern Ocean, El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 2013.

F. Jin, An Equatorial Ocean Recharge Paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual Model, Journal, p.640, 1997.

, Atmospheric Sciences, vol.54, pp.811-829

F. Jin, A. S.-i.-an, J. Timmermann, and . Zhao, , 2003.

, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.30, pp.20-21

N. C. Johnson and S. Xie, Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection, Nature, vol.644, 2010.

. Geoscience, , vol.3, pp.842-845

C. Karamperidou, J. L. F.-f.-jin, and . Conroy, The importance of ENSO nonlinearities in tropical pacific 646 response to external forcing, Climate Dynamics, vol.49, pp.2695-2704, 2017.

J. E. Kay, C. Deser, A. Phillips, A. Mai, C. Hannay et al.,

M. Edwards, P. Holland, J. Kushner, D. Lamarque, K. Lawrence et al., , p.649

K. Oleson, L. Polvani, and M. Vertenstein, Ensemble 650 Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability, The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large, 2015.

, , vol.96, pp.1333-1349

J. Kug, J. Choi, S. An, F. Jin, and A. T. Wittenberg, Warm Pool and Cold Tongue El Niño Events as 653 Simulated by the GFDL 2.1 Coupled GCM, Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.1226-1239, 2010.

T. Lee and M. J. Mcphaden, Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific, Geophysical 655 Research Letters, vol.37, 2010.

M. Lengaigne, U. Hausmann, G. Madec, C. Menkes, J. Vialard et al., Mechanisms controlling 657 warm water volume interannual variations in the equatorial Pacific: diabatic versus adiabatic processes, Climate, vol.658, 2012.

, Dynamics, vol.38, pp.1031-1046

G. Li and S. Xie, Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold 660, 2013.

. Tongue, . Double, and . Problems, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.1765-1780

G. Li, Y. S.-p.-xie, Y. Du, and . Luo, Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of 662 tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, Climate Dynamics, vol.663, pp.3817-3831, 2016.

G. Liguori and E. Lorenzo, Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under 665, 2018.

, tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, pp.983-991

M. J. Mcphaden, S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz, ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science, vol.675, pp.1740-1745, 2006.

G. A. Meehl, G. J. Boer, C. Covey, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer, The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 677 (CMIP). Bulletin of the, vol.81, pp.313-318, 2000.

G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng et al.,

W. G. Sanderson and . Strand, Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4, Journal of Climate, vol.680, pp.6287-6308, 2013.

S. Neske and S. Mcgregor, Understanding the Warm Water Volume precursor of ENSO events and its 682 interdecadal variation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, 2018.

W. Oleson, M. Lawrence, B. Bonan, G. Flanner, E. Kluzek et al.,

R. Decker, J. Dickinson, L. Feddema, F. Heald, J. Hoffman et al.,

S. Randerson, K. Running, A. Sakaguchi, R. Slater, A. Stockli et al., , p.686, 2010.

S. G. Philander, Forced oceanic waves, Reviews of Geophysics, vol.16, pp.15-46, 1978.

S. Power, F. Delage, C. Chung, G. Kociuba, and K. Keay, Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and 689 related precipitation variability, Nature, vol.502, pp.541-545, 2013.

N. A. Rayner, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late 691 nineteenth century, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.108, p.4407, 2003.

H. Ren and F. Jin, Niño indices for two types of ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.38, p.693, 2011.

I. Richter, twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections, Nature, vol.6, pp.126-130, 2015.

R. Smith, P. Jones, B. Briegleb, F. Bryan, G. Danabasoglu et al., 703 and others, 2010: The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual ocean component of the community climate 704 system model (CCSM) and community earth system model (CESM), vol.141, pp.1-140

K. Stein, N. Schneider, A. Timmermann, and F. Jin, , p.707, 2010.

, Stochastic Model. Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.5629-5643

S. Stevenson, A. Capotondi, J. Fasullo, and B. Otto-bliesner, Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO 709 diversity in a last Millennium context, Climate Dynamics, pp.1-16, 2017.

K. Takahashi and B. Dewitte, Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes, Climate Dynamics, vol.46, p.1645, 2016.

K. Takahashi, C. Karamperidou, and B. Dewitte, A theoretical model of strong and moderate El Niño regimes, 2018.

, Climate Dynamics

K. Takahashi, A. Montecinos, K. Goubanova, and B. Dewitte, ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and 715, 2011.

M. E. Niño, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.38

K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, vol.93, pp.485-498

S. Thual, B. Dewitte, S. An, and N. Ayoub, , vol.719, 2011.

, Conceptual Model. Journal of Climate, vol.24, pp.4332-4349

S. Thual, B. Dewitte, S. An, S. Illig, and N. Ayoub, Influence of Recent Stratification Changes, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00951084

, Stability in a Conceptual Model of the Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.4790-4802

K. E. Trenberth and D. P. Stepaniak, Indices of el Niño evolution, Journal of Climate, vol.14, pp.1697-1701, 2001.

G. A. Vecchi and D. E. Harrison, The Termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part I: Mechanisms of Oceanic 725, 2006.

, Change. Journal of Climate, vol.19, pp.2633-2646

G. A. Vecchi and B. J. Soden, Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation, p.727, 2007.

, Climate, vol.20, pp.4316-4340

A. T. Wittenberg, A. Rosati, N. Lau, and J. J. Ploshay, GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part 729 III: Tropical Pacific Climate and ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.19, pp.698-722, 2006.

S. Yeh, W. Cai, S. Min, M. J. Mcphaden, D. Dommenget et al.,

J. Yim and . Kug, ENSO atmospheric teleconnections and their response to greenhouse gas forcing, 734 Reviews of Geophysics, vol.56, pp.185-206, 2018.

S. Yeh, B. Dewitte, B. Y. Yim, and Y. Noh, Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like 736 SST variability to global warming, Climate Dynamics, vol.35, pp.355-369, 2010.

S. Yeh, J. Kug, B. Dewitte, M. Kwon, B. P. Kirtman et al., , 2009.

, Nature, vol.461, pp.511-514

S. Yeh, B. Y. Yim, Y. Noh, and B. Dewitte, Changes in mixed layer depth under climate change projections 740 in two CGCMs, Climate Dynamics, vol.33, pp.199-213, 2009.

S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, A Model El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Monthly Weather Review, vol.115, p.2278, 1987.

H. Zelle, G. Appeldoorn, G. Burgers, and G. J. Van-oldenborgh, The Relationship between Sea Surface, p.744, 2004.

, Temperature and Thermocline Depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.34, pp.643-655

X. Zheng, C. Hui, and S. Yeh, Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: 747 uncertainty due to internal variability, Climate Dynamics, vol.50, p.4019, 2018.

Y. Zheng, J. Lin, and T. Shinoda, The equatorial Pacific cold tongue simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: 749 Upper ocean heat budget and feedback analysis, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.117, p.750, 2012.

C. F. Ropelewski and M. S. Halpert, Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weath. Rev, vol.115, pp.1606-1626, 1987.

P. W. Glynn and W. H. De-weerdt, Elimination of two reef-building hydrocorals following the 1982-83 El Niño warming event, Science, vol.253, pp.69-71, 1991.

M. C. Bove, J. J. O'brien, J. B. Eisner, C. W. Landsea, and X. Niu, Efect of El Niño on US landfalling hurricanes, revisited, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, vol.79, pp.2477-2482, 1998.

M. J. Mcphaden, S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz, ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science, Science, vol.314, pp.1740-1745, 2006.

E. M. Vincent, Interannual variability of the South Paciic Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis, Clim. Dyn, vol.36, pp.1881-1896, 2011.

C. A. Valle, The impact of the 1982-1983 El Niño-Southern Oscillation on seabirds in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador, J. Geophys. Res, vol.92, pp.14437-14444, 1987.

W. Cai, Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Chang, vol.4, pp.111-116, 2014.

K. Ashok, S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res, vol.112, p.11007, 2007.

S. Yeh, El Niño in a changing climate, Nature, vol.461, pp.511-514, 2009.

J. Kug, F. Jin, and S. An, Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño, J. Clim, vol.22, pp.1499-1515, 2009.

H. Y. Kao and J. Yu, Contrasting eastern-Paciic and central-Paciic types of ENSO, J. Clim, vol.22, pp.615-632, 2009.

K. Takahashi, A. Montecinos, K. Goubanova, and B. Dewitte, ENSO regimes: reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.38, p.10704, 2011.

D. Dommenget, T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation, Clim. Dyn, vol.40, pp.2825-2847, 2013.

K. Takahashi and B. Dewitte, Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes, Clim. Dyn, vol.46, pp.1627-1645, 2016.

A. Capotondi, Understanding ENSO diversity. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, vol.96, pp.921-938, 2015.

W. Cai, More extreme swings of the South Paciic convergence zone due to greenhouse warming, Nature, vol.488, pp.365-369, 2012.

W. Cai, ENSO and Greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Chang, vol.5, pp.849-859, 2015.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01233780

M. Collins, The impact of global warming on the tropical Paciic Ocean and El Niño, Nat. Geosci, vol.3, pp.391-397, 2010.

M. Watanabe, Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to the future, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.39, p.20703, 2012.

S. Xie, Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall, J. Clim, vol.23, pp.966-986, 2010.

S. Power, F. Delage, C. Chung, G. Kociuba, and K. Keay, Robust twenty-irstcentury projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability, Nature, vol.502, pp.541-545, 2013.

A. Santoso, Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections, Nature, vol.504, pp.126-130, 2013.

M. J. Mcphaden, T. Lee, and D. Mcclurg, El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Paciic, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.38, p.15709, 2011.

M. Newman, S. Shin, and M. A. Alexander, Natural variation in ENSO lavors, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.38, p.14705, 2011.

S. Yeh, B. P. Kirtman, J. Kug, W. Park, and M. Latif, Natural variability of the central Paciic El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.38, p.2704, 2011.

W. Cai, More frequent extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Chang, vol.5, pp.132-137, 2015.

K. Choi, G. A. Vecchi, and A. T. Wittenberg, ENSO transition, duration, and amplitude asymmetries: role of the nonlinear wind stress coupling in a conceptual model, J. Clim, vol.26, pp.9462-9476, 2013.

C. Frauen and D. Dommenget, El Niño and La Niña amplitude asymmetry caused by atmospheric feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.37, p.18801, 2010.

K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stoufer, and G. A. Meehl, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, vol.93, pp.485-498, 2012.

S. T. Kim and J. Yu, The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.39, p.11704, 2012.

Y. Ham and J. Kug, How well do current climate models simulate two types of El Nino?, Clim. Dyn, vol.39, pp.383-398, 2012.

C. Karamperidou, F. Jin, and J. L. Conroy, The importance of ENSO nonlinearities in tropical Paciic response to external forcing, Clim. Dyn, vol.49, pp.2695-2704, 2017.

S. Stevenson, Will there be a signiicant change to El Niño in the twenty-irst century?, J. Clim, vol.25, pp.2129-2145, 2012.

M. A. Cane and E. S. Sarachik, The response of a linear baroclinic equatorial ocean to periodic forcing, J. Mar. Res, vol.39, pp.651-693, 1981.

S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weath. Rev, vol.115, pp.2262-2278, 1987.

B. Dewitte, G. Reverdin, and C. Maes, Vertical structure of an OGCM simulation of the equatorial Paciic Ocean in 1985-1994, J. Phys. Oceanogr, vol.29, pp.1542-1570, 1999.

B. Dewitte, Low frequency variability of temperature in the vicinity of the equatorial thermocline in SODA: role of equatorial wave dynamics and ENSO asymmetry, J. Clim, vol.22, pp.5783-5795, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00994267

S. An and F. Jin, Collective role of thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks in the ENSO mode, J. Clim, vol.14, pp.3421-3432, 2001.

S. Thual, B. Dewitte, S. An, and N. Ayoub, Sensitivity of ENSO to stratiication in a recharge-discharge conceptual model, J. Clim, vol.4, pp.4331-4348, 2011.

S. Thual, B. Dewitte, S. An, S. Illig, and N. Ayoub, Inluence of recent stratiication changes on ENSO stability in a conceptual model of the equatorial Paciic, J. Clim, vol.26, pp.4790-4802, 2013.

P. R. Gent and J. R. Luyten, How much energy propagates vertically in the equatorial oceans?, J. Phys. Oceanogr, vol.15, pp.997-1007, 1985.

W. Kim and W. Cai, The importance of the eastward zonal current for generating extreme El Niño, Clim. Dyn, vol.42, pp.3005-3014, 2014.

B. Huang, Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5), upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons, J. Clim, vol.30, pp.8179-8205, 2017.

R. W. Reynolds, An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate, J. Clim, vol.15, pp.1609-1625, 2002.

M. A. Balmaseda, A. Vidard, and D. L. Anderson, The ECMWF ocean analysis system: ORA-S3, Mon. Weath. Rev, vol.136, pp.3018-3034, 2008.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/inria-00182186

M. A. Balmaseda, K. Mogensen, and A. T. Weaver, Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, vol.139, pp.1132-1161, 2013.

E. Kalnay, The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, vol.77, pp.437-472, 1996.

E. N. Lorenz, Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Statistical Weather Prediction, Statistical Forecast Project Report, vol.1, 1956.

J. E. Fjelstad, Interne Wellen (Cammermeyer in Komm, 1933.

B. Dewitte, S. Yeh, B. Moon, C. Cibot, and L. Terray, Rectiication of the ENSO variability by interdecadal changes in the equatorial background mean state in a CGCM simulation, J. Clim, vol.20, pp.2002-2021, 2007.

S. Yeh, B. Dewitte, B. Y. Yim, and Y. Noh, Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming, Clim. Dyn, vol.35, pp.355-369, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00994205

M. B. Blumenthal and M. A. Cane, Accounting for parameter uncertainties in model veriication: an illustration with tropical sea surface temperature, J. Phys. Oceanogr, vol.19, pp.815-830, 1989.

E. Bibliography-abellán, S. Mcgregor, and M. H. England, Analysis of the Southward Wind Shift of ENSO in CMIP5 Models, Journal of Climate, vol.30, pp.2415-2435, 2017.

E. Abellán, S. Mcgregor, M. H. England, and A. Santoso, Distinctive role of ocean advection anomalies in the development of the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, Climate Dynamics, pp.1-18, 2017.

R. F. Adler, G. J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P. Xie et al., The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present), J. Hydrometeor, vol.4, pp.1147-1167, 2003.

S. An, 2009: A review of interdecadal changes in the nonlinearity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Theor Appl Climatol, vol.21, pp.29-40, 2008.

S. An, Y. Ham, J. Kug, F. Jin, and I. Kang, El Niño-La Niña Asymmetry in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Simulations, Journal of Climate, vol.18, pp.2617-2627, 2005.

S. An, W. W. Hsieh, and F. Jin, A Nonlinear Analysis of the ENSO Cycle and Its Interdecadal Changes, Journal of Climate, vol.18, pp.3229-3239, 2005.

S. An and F. Jin, An eigen analysis of the interdecadal changes in the structure and frequency of ENSO mode, Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of ENSO. J. Climate, vol.27, pp.2399-2412, 2000.

S. An, J. Kug, Y. Ham, and I. Kang, Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming, Journal of Climate, vol.21, pp.3-21, 2008.

S. An and B. Wang, Interdecadal Change of the Structure of the ENSO Mode and Its Impact on the ENSO Frequency, Journal of Climate, vol.13, pp.2044-2055, 2000.

A. Arakawa and V. R. Lamb, Computational Design of the Basic Dynamical Processes of the UCLA General Circulation Model, Computational Physics: Advances in Research and Applications, vol.17, pp.173-265, 1977.

K. Ashok, S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.112, 2007.

M. P. Baldwin, D. B. Stephenson, and I. T. Jolliffe, Spatial Weighting and Iterative Projection Methods for EOFs, J. Climate, vol.22, pp.234-243, 2009.

V. Banzon, T. M. Smith, T. M. Chin, C. Liu, and W. Hankins, A long-term record of blended satellite and in situ sea-surface temperature for climate monitoring, modeling and environmental studies, Earth System Science Data, vol.8, pp.165-176, 2016.

D. S. Battisti and A. C. Hirst, Interannual Variability in a Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Influence of the Basic State, Ocean Geometry and Nonlinearity, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.46, pp.1687-1712, 1989.

T. Bayr, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, C. Wengel, J. Harlaß et al., Mean-state dependence of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models, Climate Dynamics, vol.50, pp.3171-3194, 2018.

T. Bayr, C. Wengel, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, J. Lübbecke et al., Error compensation of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models and its influence on simulated ENSO dynamics, Climate Dynamics, 2018.

L. Bejarano and F. Jin, Coexistence of Equatorial Coupled Modes of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.21, pp.3051-3067, 2008.

H. Bellenger, E. Guilyardi, J. Leloup, M. Lengaigne, and J. Vialard, ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dynamics, vol.42, 1999.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00914966

A. Belmadani, B. Dewitte, and S. An, ENSO feedbacks and associated time scales of variability in a multimodel ensemble, Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.3181-3204, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00766394

M. Bittner, H. Schmidt, C. Timmreck, and F. Sienz, Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.43, pp.9324-9332, 2016.

J. Bjerknes, Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev, vol.97, pp.163-172, 1969.

H. Björnsson and S. A. Venegas, A Manual for EOF and SVD Analyses of Climatic Data, 1997.

C. Bosc and T. Delcroix, Observed equatorial Rossby waves and ENSO-related warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.113, 2008.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00287144

G. Boschat, P. Terray, and S. Masson, Extratropical forcing of ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.40, pp.1605-1611, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00873386

J. Boucharel, Modes de variabilité climatique dans l'océan Pacifique tropical : quantification des non-linéarités et rôle sur les changements de régimes climatiques, 2010.

J. Boucharel, B. Dewitte, Y. Penhoat, B. Garel, S. Yeh et al., ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate, Climate Dynamics, vol.37, pp.2045-2065, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00951435

J. Boucharel, B. Dewitte, B. Garel, and Y. Du-penhoat, ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol.16, pp.453-473, 2009.

J. Boucharel and F. Jin, 2020: A simple theory for the modulation of tropical instability waves by ENSO and the annual cycle, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol.72, pp.1-14

J. Boucharel, A. Timmermann, and F. Jin, Zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies: Revisited, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.40, pp.4048-4053, 2013.

J. Boucharel, A. Timmermann, A. Santoso, M. H. England, F. Jin et al., 2015: A surface layer variance heat budget for ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.42, pp.3529-3537

J. Boulanger, Reflected and locally wind-forced interannual equatorial Kelvin waves in the western Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.108, 2003.

J. Boulanger, E. Durand, J. Duvel, C. Menkes, P. Delecluse et al., Role of non-linear oceanic processes in the response to westerly wind events: New implications for the 1997 El Niño onset, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.28, pp.1603-1606, 2001.

J. Boulanger and C. Menkes, Long equatorial wave reflection in the Pacific Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON data during the 1992-1998 period, Climate Dynamics, vol.15, pp.205-225, 1999.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00772197

R. E. Brainard, T. Oliver, M. J. Mcphaden, A. Cohen, R. Venegas et al., , vol.16, 2015.

, El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.99, pp.21-26

L. Bunge and A. J. Clarke, On the Warm Water Volume and Its Changing Relationship with ENSO, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.44, pp.1372-1385, 2014.

W. Cai, S. Borlace, M. Lengaigne, P. Van-rensch, M. Collins et al.,

J. , Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nature Climate Change, vol.4, pp.111-116, 2014.

W. Cai, A. Santoso, G. Wang, S. Yeh, S. An et al., ENSO and greenhouse warming, vol.5, pp.849-859, 2015.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01233780

W. Cai, G. Wang, B. Dewitte, L. Wu, A. Santoso et al., Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming, Nature, vol.564, pp.201-206, 2018.

W. Cai, G. Wang, A. Santoso, X. Lin, and L. Wu, Definition of Extreme El Niño and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Niño Frequency, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.44, 2017.

W. Cai, G. Wang, A. Santoso, M. J. Mcphaden, L. Wu et al., Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming, Nature Climate Change, vol.5, pp.132-137, 2015.

M. A. Cane and S. E. Zebiak, A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, Science, vol.228, pp.1085-1087, 1985.

A. Capotondi, 2013: ENSO diversity in the NCAR CCSM4 climate model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.118, pp.4755-4770

A. Capotondi and P. D. Sardeshmukh, Optimal precursors of different types of ENSO events: Optimal Precursors of ENSO Events, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.42, pp.9952-9960, 2015.

A. Capotondi, A. Wittenberg, and S. Masina, Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations. Ocean Modelling, vol.15, pp.274-298, 2006.

A. Capotondi, A. T. Wittenberg, M. Newman, E. D. Lorenzo, J. Yu et al., Understanding ENSO Diversity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.96, pp.921-938, 2015.

J. A. Carton and B. S. Giese, A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), Monthly Weather Review, vol.136, pp.2999-3017, 2008.

C. Tierno, A. , E. Mohino, B. Rodríguez-fonseca, and T. Losada, Revisiting the CMIP5 Thermocline in the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, Geophysical Research Letters, 2018.

R. Chadwick, I. Boutle, and G. Martin, Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Change in CMIP5: Why the Rich Do Not Get Richer in the Tropics, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.3803-3822, 2013.

P. Chang, L. Zhang, R. Saravanan, D. J. Vimont, J. C. Chiang et al., Pacific meridional mode and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.34, 2007.

C. Chen, M. A. Cane, A. T. Wittenberg, and D. Chen, ENSO in the CMIP5 Simulations: Life Cycles, Diversity, and Responses to Climate Change, vol.30, pp.775-801, 2017.

D. Chen, M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak, and D. Huang, Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years, Nature, vol.428, pp.733-736, 2004.

D. Chen, T. Lian, C. Fu, M. A. Cane, Y. Tang et al., Strong influence of westerly wind bursts on El Niño diversity, Nature Geoscience, vol.8, pp.339-345, 2015.

G. Chen, How Does Shifting Pacific Ocean Warming Modulate on Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the South China Sea, Journal of Climate, vol.24, pp.4695-4700, 2011.

G. Chen and C. Tam, Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.37, 2010.

L. Chen, T. Li, and Y. Yu, Causes of Strengthening and Weakening of ENSO Amplitude under Global Warming in Four CMIP5 Models, Journal of Climate, vol.28, pp.3250-3274, 2015.

L. Chen, T. Li, Y. Yu, and S. K. Behera, A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming, Climate Dynamics, 2017.

S. Chen, W. Chen, B. Yu, and H. Graf, Modulation of the seasonal footprinting mechanism by the boreal spring Arctic Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.40, pp.6384-6389, 2013.

S. Chen and R. Wu, Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index, Climate Dynamics, vol.50, pp.375-389, 2018.

J. C. Chiang and D. J. Vimont, Analogous Pacific and Atlantic Meridional Modes of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Variability, Journal of Climate, vol.17, pp.4143-4158, 2004.

Y. Chikamoto, A. Timmermann, J. Luo, T. Mochizuki, M. Kimoto et al., Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical transbasin climate variability, Nature Communications, vol.6, p.6869, 2015.

A. M. Chiodi and D. E. Harrison, Atmospheric Circulation, Temperature, and Precipitation Anomalies: The OLR-Event Perspective, El Niño Impacts on Seasonal U.S, vol.26, pp.822-837, 2013.

J. Choi, B. S.-i.-an, W. W. Dewitte, and . Hsieh, Interactive Feedback between the Tropical Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ENSO in a Coupled General Circulation Model, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.6597-6611, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00766389

J. Choi, J. S.-i.-an, S. Kug, and . Yeh, The role of mean state on changes in El Niño's flavor, Climate Dynamics, vol.37, pp.1205-1215, 2011.

J. Choi, S. S.-i.-an, and . Yeh, Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and its relationship with the mean state, Climate Dynamics, vol.38, pp.2631-2644, 2012.

J. Choi, S. S.-i.-an, J. Yeh, and . Yu, ENSO-Like and ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability in CGCMs, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.1485-1501, 2013.

K. Choi, G. A. Vecchi, and A. T. Wittenberg, ENSO Transition, Duration, and Amplitude Asymmetries: Role of the Nonlinear Wind Stress Coupling in a Conceptual Model, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.9462-9476, 2013.

E. Chung, A. Timmermann, B. J. Soden, K. Ha, L. Shi et al., Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections, Nature Climate Change, vol.9, pp.405-412, 2019.

P. Chung and T. Li, Interdecadal Relationship between the Mean State and El Niño Types, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.361-379, 2013.

C. Cibot, E. Maisonnave, L. Terray, and B. Dewitte, Mechanisms of tropical Pacific interannual-to-decadal variability in the ARPEGE/ORCA global coupled model, Climate Dynamics, vol.24, pp.823-842, 2005.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00280331

A. J. Clarke, 007<1623:WASEEW>2.0.CO;2. -2010: Analytical Theory for the Quasi-Steady and Low-Frequency Equatorial Ocean Response to Wind Forcing: The "Tilt" and "Warm Water Volume" Modes, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.7, pp.79-99, 1994.

A. J. Clarke, S. Van-gorder, and G. Colantuono, Wind Stress Curl and ENSO Discharge/Recharge in the Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.37, pp.1077-1091, 2007.

A. Clement, K. Bellomo, L. N. Murphy, M. A. Cane, T. Mauritsen et al., The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation, Science, vol.350, pp.320-324, 2015.

M. Collins, W. S.-i.-an, A. Cai, E. Ganachaud, F. Guilyardi et al., The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño, Nature Geoscience, vol.3, pp.391-397, 2010.

G. P. Compo, J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan et al., The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, vol.137, pp.1-28, 2011.

G. Danabasoglu, S. C. Bates, B. P. Briegleb, S. R. Jayne, M. Jochum et al., 2012: The CCSM4 Ocean Component, Journal of Climate, vol.25, pp.1361-1389

A. Dawson, 2016: eofs: A Library for EOF Analysis of Meteorological, Oceanographic, and Climate Data, Journal of Open Research Software, vol.4

T. Delcroix, G. Eldin, M. Mcphaden, and A. Morlière, Effects of westerly wind bursts upon the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.98, p.16379, 1991.

T. L. Delworth, A. J. Broccoli, A. Rosati, R. J. Stouffer, V. Balaji et al., GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics, J. Climate, vol.19, pp.643-674, 2006.

C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, and M. A. Alexander, Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.37, 2010.

C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, R. A. Tomas, Y. M. Okumura, M. A. Alexander et al., ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4, Journal of Climate, vol.25, pp.2622-2651, 2012.

C. Deser and J. M. Wallace, Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Features of Warm and Cold Episodes in the Tropical Pacific, Journal of Climate, vol.3, pp.1254-1281, 1990.

B. Dewitte, Sensitivity of an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model of the Tropical Pacific to Its Oceanic Vertical Structure, Journal of Climate, vol.13, pp.2363-2388, 2000.

B. Dewitte, J. Choi, S. An, and S. Thual, 2012: Vertical structure variability and equatorial waves during central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niños in a coupled general circulation model, Climate Dynamics, vol.38, pp.2275-2289

B. Dewitte, C. Cibot, C. Périgaud, S. An, and L. Terray, Interaction between Near-Annual and ENSO Modes in a CGCM Simulation: Role of the Equatorial Background Mean State, Journal of Climate, vol.20, pp.1035-1052, 2007.

B. Dewitte and K. Takahashi, Diversity of moderate El Niño events evolution: role of air-sea interactions in the eastern tropical Pacific, Climate Dynamics, 2017.

B. Dewitte, S. Thual, S. Yeh, S. An, B. Moon et al., Low-Frequency Variability of Temperature in the Vicinity of the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline in SODA: Role of Equatorial Wave Dynamics and ENSO Asymmetry, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.5783-5795, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00994267

B. Dewitte, S. Yeh, and S. Thual, Reinterpreting the thermocline feedback in the western-central equatorial Pacific and its relationship with the ENSO modulation, Climate Dynamics, vol.41, pp.819-830, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00994189

D. Lorenzo, E. , G. Liguori, N. Schneider, J. C. Furtado et al., ENSO and meridional modes: A null hypothesis for Pacific climate variability, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.42, pp.9440-9448, 2015.

H. A. Dijkstra and J. D. Neelin, Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and the Tropical Climatology. Part II: Why the Pacific Cold Tongue Is in the East, Journal of Climate, vol.8, pp.1343-1359, 1995.

P. Dinezio, A. Clement, and G. Vecchi, Reconciling Differing Views of Tropical Pacific Climate Change, Transactions American Geophysical Union, vol.91, pp.141-142, 2010.

P. N. Dinezio, A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, B. P. Kirtman et al., Climate response of the equatorial pacific to global warming, Journal of climate, vol.22, pp.4873-4892, 2009.

P. N. Dinezio, B. P. Kirtman, A. C. Clement, S. Lee, G. A. Vecchi et al., Mean Climate Controls on the Simulated Response of ENSO to Increasing Greenhouse Gases, J. Climate, vol.25, pp.7399-7420, 2012.

D. Dommenget, T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation, Climate Dynamics, vol.40, pp.2825-2847, 2013.

D. Dommenget and M. Latif, A Cautionary Note on the Interpretation of EOFs, vol.15, pp.216-225, 2002.

D. Dommenget and Y. Yu, The seasonally changing cloud feedbacks contribution to the ENSO seasonal phase-locking, Climate Dynamics, vol.47, pp.3661-3672, 2016.

B. Efron, The Jackknife, the Bootstrap and Other Resampling Plans. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, 1982.

I. Eisenman, L. Yu, and E. Tziperman, Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSO's Tail Rather than the Dog?, Journal of Climate, vol.18, pp.5224-5238, 2005.

E. Exarchou, C. Prodhomme, L. Brodeau, V. Guemas, and F. Doblas-reyes, Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model, Climate Dynamics, vol.51, pp.1819-1840, 2018.

V. Eyring, S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens et al., Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geoscientific Model Development, vol.9, 1937.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01339069

J. T. Fasullo, B. L. Otto-bliesner, and S. Stevenson, ENSO's Changing Influence on Temperature, Precipitation, and Wildfire in a Warming Climate, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, pp.9216-9225, 2018.

A. V. Fedorov, Ocean Response to Wind Variations, Warm Water Volume, and Simple Models of ENSO in the Low-Frequency Approximation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.128, pp.3855-3873, 2002.

A. V. Fedorov, S. Hu, M. Lengaigne, and E. Guilyardi, The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state on the development, and diversity of El Niño events, Climate Dynamics, vol.44, pp.1381-1401, 2015.

A. V. Fedorov and S. G. Philander, 2001: A Stability Analysis of Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Bridging Measurements and Theory for El Niño, Journal of Climate, vol.288, pp.3086-3101, 1997.

H. Fischer, K. J. Meissner, A. C. Mix, N. J. Abram, J. Austermann et al.,

W. Velasquez-alvárez, P. J. Tinner, H. Valdes, H. Vogel, Q. Wanner et al., Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2°C anthropogenic warming and beyond, Nature Geoscience, vol.11, pp.474-485, 2018.

G. M. Flato, Earth system models: an overview: Earth system models. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol.2, pp.783-800, 2011.

C. Frauen and D. Dommenget, El Niño and La Niña amplitude asymmetry caused by atmospheric feedbacks, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.37, 2010.

P. Friedlingstein, P. Cox, R. Betts, L. Bopp, W. Bloh et al., Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4mip Model Intercomparison, Journal of Climate, vol.19, pp.3337-3353, 2006.

S. Gadgil, P. V. Joseph, and N. V. Joshi, Ocean-atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions, Nature, vol.312, pp.141-143, 1984.

G. Gebbie, I. Eisenman, A. Wittenberg, and E. Tziperman, Modulation of Westerly Wind Bursts by Sea Surface Temperature: A Semistochastic Feedback for ENSO, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.64, pp.3281-3295, 2007.

P. R. Gent, G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke et al., The Community Climate System Model Version 4, J. Climate, vol.24, pp.4973-4991, 2011.

B. S. Giese and S. Ray, El Niño variability in simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.116, p.2024, 2011.

A. E. Gill, 1980: Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.106, pp.447-462

L. Goddard and M. Dilley, El Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity, Journal of Climate, vol.18, pp.651-665, 2005.

F. S. Graham, A. T. Wittenberg, J. N. Brown, S. J. Marsland, and N. J. Holbrook, Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs, Climate Dynamics, vol.48, pp.2045-2063, 2017.

N. E. Graham and T. P. Barnett, Sea Surface Temperature, Surface Wind Divergence, and Convection over Tropical Oceans, Science, vol.238, pp.657-659, 1987.

S. Griffies, A. J. Adcroft, H. Hewitt, S. Boning, E. Chassignet et al., Problems and Prospects in Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Models. Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, pp.410-431, 2010.

S. M. Griffies, M. J. Harrison, R. C. Pacanowski, A. Rosati, Z. Liang et al., A Technical Guide to MOM4, GFDL group technical report, vol.342, issue.5, 2004.

C. Guan and M. J. Mcphaden, Ocean Processes Affecting the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO SST Variability, Journal of Climate, vol.29, pp.6861-6879, 2016.

E. Guilyardi, El Niño-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble, Climate Dynamics, vol.26, pp.329-348, 2006.

E. Guilyardi, P. Braconnot, F. Jin, S. T. Kim, M. Kolasinski et al., Atmosphere Feedbacks during ENSO in a Coupled GCM with a Modified Atmospheric Convection Scheme, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.5698-5718, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00760036

E. Guilyardi, A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang et al., Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and Challenges, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, vol.90, pp.325-340, 2009.

D. Gushchina and B. Dewitte, 2019: Decadal modulation of the relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability and ENSO, Monthly Weather Review, vol.140, pp.2091-2103, 2012.

M. S. Halpert and C. F. Ropelewski, Surface Temperature Patterns Associated with the Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate, vol.5, pp.577-593, 1992.

Y. Ham and J. Kug, How well do current climate models simulate two types of El Niño? Climate Dynamics, vol.39, pp.383-398, 2012.

S. N. Hameed, D. Jin, and V. Thilakan, A model for super El Niños, Nature Communications, vol.9, p.2528, 2018.

S. Harper, Thermocline ventilation and pathways of tropical-subtropical water mass exchange, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol.52, pp.330-345, 2000.

D. E. Harrison and G. A. Vecchi, 010<3131:WWEITT>2.0.CO;2. -1999: On the termination of El Niño, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, pp.1593-1596, 1997.

M. Hayashi and M. Watanabe, ENSO Complexity Induced by State Dependence of Westerly Wind Events, Journal of Climate, vol.30, pp.3401-3420, 2017.

M. P. Hoerling, A. Kumar, and M. Zhong, El Niño, La Niña, and the Nonlinearity of Their Teleconnections, Journal of Climate, vol.10, pp.1769-1786, 1997.

R. M. Holmes, S. Mcgregor, A. Santoso, and M. H. England, Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity, Climate Dynamics, 2018.

L. Hong, F. Linho, and . Jin, A Southern Hemisphere booster of super El Niño, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.41, pp.2142-2149, 2014.

S. Hoyer and J. J. Hamman, 2017: xarray: N-D labeled Arrays and Datasets in Python, Journal of Open Research Software, vol.5

S. Hu and A. V. Fedorov, The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event, Climate Dynamics, 2017.

S. Hu, A. V. Fedorov, M. Lengaigne, and E. Guilyardi, The impact of westerly wind bursts on the diversity and predictability of El Niño events: An ocean energetics perspective, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.41, pp.4654-4663, 2014.

Z. Hu, A. Kumar, B. Jha, W. Wang, B. Huang et al., An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Niños: air-sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends, Climate Dynamics, vol.38, 2012.

Z. Hu, A. Kumar, J. Zhu, B. Huang, Y. Tseng et al., On the Shortening of the Lead Time of Ocean Warm Water Volume to ENSO SST Since, Scientific Reports, vol.7, 2000.

E. C. Hunke and W. Lipscomb, CICE: The Los Alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual version 4.0 LA-CC-06-012, 2010.

J. Hurrell, T. Delworth, G. Danabasoglu, H. Drange, S. Griffies et al., Decadal climate prediction: opportunities and challenges. Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, 2009.

J. W. Hurrell, M. M. Holland, P. R. Gent, S. Ghan, J. E. Kay et al., The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, vol.94, pp.1339-1360, 2013.

Y. Hwang and D. M. Frierson, Link between the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone problem and cloud biases over the Southern Ocean, 2013.

T. Izumo, M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, I. Suresh, and Y. Planton, On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Climate Dynamics, 2018.

Y. R. Jauregui and K. Takahashi, Simple physical-empirical model of the precipitation distribution based on a tropical sea surface temperature threshold and the effects of climate change, Climate Dynamics, vol.50, pp.2217-2237, 2018.

G. Jekabsons, ARESLab: Adaptive regression splines toolbox for Matlab, 2013.

H. Jeong and J. Ahn, A new method to classify ENSO events into eastern and central Pacific types, International Journal of Climatology, vol.37, pp.2193-2199, 2017.

F. Jin, An Equatorial Ocean Recharge Paradigm for ENSO, 1997.

I. Part, 054<0811:AEORPF>2.0.CO;2. -1997b: An Equatorial Ocean Recharge Paradigm for ENSO. Part II: A Stripped-Down Coupled Model, Conceptual Model, vol.54, pp.830-847, 1997.

F. Jin and S. An, Thermocline and Zonal Advective Feedbacks Within the Equatorial Ocean Recharge Oscillator Model for ENSO, vol.26, pp.2989-2992, 1999.

F. Jin, A. S.-i.-an, J. Timmermann, and . Zhao, Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.30, 2003.

F. Jin, S. T. Kim, and L. Bejarano, A coupled-stability index for ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.33, 2006.

F. Jin, J. Kug, S. An, and I. Kang, A near-annual coupled oceanatmosphere mode in the equatorial Pacific ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.30, 2003.

F. Jin, L. Lin, A. Timmermann, and J. Zhao, Ensemble-mean dynamics of the ENSO recharge oscillator under state-dependent stochastic forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.34, 2007.

F. Jin and J. D. Neelin, Modes of Interannual Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction-a Unified View. Part I: Numerical Results, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.50, pp.3477-3503, 1993.

F. Jin, J. D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, El Nino on the Devil's Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to Chaos, Science, vol.264, pp.70-72, 1994.

N. C. Johnson, How Many ENSO Flavors Can We Distinguish, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.4816-4827, 2013.

N. C. Johnson and S. Xie, Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection, Nature Geoscience, vol.3, pp.842-845, 2010.

I. Kang and J. Kug, El Niño and La Niña sea surface temperature anomalies: Asymmetry characteristics associated with their wind stress anomalies, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.107, 2002.

H. Kao and J. Yu, Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.615-632, 2009.

C. Karamperidou, P. N. Di-nezio, A. Timmermann, F. Jin, and K. M. Cobb, The response of ENSO flavors to mid-Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation, Paleoceanography, vol.30, 2015.

C. Karamperidou, J. L. F.-f.-jin, and . Conroy, The importance of ENSO nonlinearities in tropical pacific response to external forcing, Climate Dynamics, vol.49, pp.2695-2704, 2017.

J. E. Kay, C. Deser, A. Phillips, A. Mai, C. Hannay et al., The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.96, pp.1333-1349, 2015.

R. A. Kerr, Big El Niños Ride the Back of Slower Climate Change, Science, vol.283, pp.1108-1109, 1999.

W. S. Kessler, Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events?, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.29, p.2125, 2002.

W. S. Kessler and R. Kleeman, Rectification of the Madden-Julian Oscillation into the ENSO Cycle, Journal of Climate, vol.13, pp.3560-3575, 2000.

W. S. Kessler and M. J. Mcphaden, Oceanic Equatorial Waves and the 1991-93 El Niño, Journal of Climate, vol.8, pp.1757-1774, 1995.

M. Khodri, T. Izumo, J. Vialard, S. Janicot, C. Cassou et al., Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa, Nature Communications, vol.8, p.778, 2017.

D. Kim, El Niño-Southern Oscillation sensitivity to cumulus entrainment in a coupled general circulation model, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.116, p.22112, 2011.

H. Kim, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Journal of Climate, vol.325, pp.1839-1849, 2009.

S. T. Kim, W. Cai, F. Jin, and J. Yu, ENSO stability in coupled climate models and its association with mean state, Climate Dynamics, vol.42, pp.3313-3321, 2014.

S. T. Kim and F. Jin, An ENSO stability analysis. Part II: results from the twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of the CMIP3 models, Climate Dynamics, vol.36, pp.1609-1627, 2011.

S. T. Kim and J. Yu, The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.39, 2012.

M. C. Kirchmeier-young, F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett, Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Journal of Climate, vol.30, pp.553-571, 2016.

J. Kug, J. Choi, S. An, F. Jin, and A. T. Wittenberg, Warm Pool and Cold Tongue El Niño Events as Simulated by the GFDL 2.1 Coupled GCM, Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.1226-1239, 2010.

J. Kug, S. F.-f.-jin, and . An, Two Types of El Niño Events: Cold Tongue El Niño and Warm Pool El Niño, J. Climate, vol.22, pp.1499-1515, 2009.

A. Kumar and Z. Hu, Interannual and interdecadal variability of ocean temperature along the equatorial Pacific in conjunction with ENSO, Climate Dynamics, vol.42, pp.1243-1258, 2014.

K. K. Kumar, On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO, Science, vol.284, pp.2156-2159, 1999.

A. W. Lai, .. , M. Herzog, and H. Graf, Two key parameters for the El Niño continuum: zonal wind anomalies and Western Pacific subsurface potential temperature, Climate Dynamics, vol.45, pp.3461-3480, 2015.

J. Lamarque, T. C. Bond, V. Eyring, C. Granier, A. Heil et al., Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.10, pp.7017-7039, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00458149

W. G. Large, G. Danabasoglu, S. C. Doney, and J. C. Mcwilliams, Sensitivity to surface forcing and boundary layer mixing in a global ocean model: Annual-mean climatology, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.27, pp.2418-2447, 1997.

W. G. Large and S. G. Yeager, The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set, Climate Dynamics, vol.33, pp.341-364, 2009.

N. K. Larkin and D. E. Harrison, Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.32, 2005.

S. M. Larson and B. P. Kirtman, The Pacific Meridional Mode as an ENSO Precursor and Predictor in the North American Multimodel Ensemble, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.7018-7032, 2014.

S. M. Larson, K. V. Pegion, and B. P. Kirtman, The South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Thermally Driven Source of ENSO Amplitude Modulation and Uncertainty, Journal of Climate, vol.31, pp.5127-5145, 2018.

M. Latif, Dynamics of Interdecadal Variability in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models, Journal of Climate, vol.11, pp.602-624, 1998.

M. Latif, R. Kleeman, and C. Eckert, Greenhouse Warming, Decadal Variability, or El Niño? An Attempt to Understand the Anomalous, Journal of Climate, vol.10, pp.2221-2239, 1990.

D. M. Lawrence, K. W. Oleson, M. G. Flanner, P. E. Thornton, S. C. Swenson et al., 2011: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol.3

S. Lee, P. N. Dinezio, E. Chung, S. Yeh, A. T. Wittenberg et al., Spring persistence, transition, and resurgence of El Niño: Two modes of inter-El Niño variability, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.41, pp.8578-8585, 2014.

T. Lee and M. J. Mcphaden, Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.37, 2010.

M. Lengaigne, J. Boulanger, C. Menkes, G. Madec, P. Delecluse et al., , vol.98, 1997.

E. Niño, Understanding the Role of the Atmospheric Response, Journal of Climate, vol.16, pp.3330-3343

M. Lengaigne, J. Boulanger, C. Menkes, S. Masson, G. Madec et al., Ocean response to the March 1997 Westerly Wind Event, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.107, 2002.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00153870

M. Lengaigne, J. Boulanger, C. Menkes, and H. Spencer, Influence of the Seasonal Cycle on the Termination of El Niño Events in a Coupled General Circulation Model, Journal of Climate, vol.19, pp.1850-1868, 2006.

M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, J. Boulanger, C. Menkes, P. Delecluse et al., Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model, Climate Dynamics, vol.23, pp.601-620, 2004.

M. Lengaigne and G. A. Vecchi, Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in coupled general circulation models, Climate Dynamics, vol.35, pp.299-313, 2010.

A. Levine, F. F. Jin, and M. J. Mcphaden, Extreme Noise-Extreme El Niño: How State-Dependent Noise Forcing Creates El Niño-La Niña Asymmetry, Journal of Climate, vol.29, pp.5483-5499, 2016.

S. Levitus, Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean, Transactions American Geophysical Union, vol.64, p.962, 1983.

G. Li and S. Xie, Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.1765-1780, 2014.

G. Li, Y. S.-p.-xie, Y. Du, and . Luo, Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, Climate Dynamics, vol.47, pp.3817-3831, 2016.

X. Li, C. Li, J. Ling, and Y. Tan, The Relationship between Contiguous El Niño and La Niña Revealed by Self-Organizing Maps, Journal of Climate, vol.28, pp.8118-8134, 2015.

Y. Li, J. Li, W. Zhang, Q. Chen, J. Feng et al., Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.122, pp.8524-8542, 2017.

T. Lian and D. Chen, An Evaluation of Rotated EOF Analysis and Its Application to Tropical Pacific SST Variability, Journal of Climate, vol.25, pp.5361-5373, 2012.

T. Lian, D. Chen, Y. Tang, X. Liu, J. Feng et al., Linkage Between Westerly Wind Bursts and Tropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, pp.431-442, 2018.

T. Lian, D. Chen, J. Ying, P. Huang, and Y. Tang, Tropical Pacific trends under global warming: El Niño-like or La Niña-like?, National Science Review, vol.5, pp.810-812, 2018.

J. Liang, X. Yang, and D. Sun, Factors Determining the Asymmetry of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.30, pp.6097-6106, 2017.

Y. Liu and G. Chen, Intensified influence of the ENSO Modoki on boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific since the early 1990s, International Journal of Climatology, vol.38, pp.1258-1265, 2018.

Y. Liu, K. M. Cobb, H. Song, Q. Li, C. Li et al., Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries, Nature Communications, vol.8, p.15386, 2017.

Y. Liu, X. S. Liang, and R. H. Weisberg, Rectification of the Bias in the Wavelet Power Spectrum, vol.24, pp.2093-2102, 2007.

J. Lloyd, E. Guilyardi, and H. Weller, The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms, The Role of Atmosphere Feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 Models. Part III: The Shortwave Flux Feedback, vol.37, pp.4275-4293, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00760199

J. Lloyd, E. Guilyardi, H. Weller, and J. Slingo, The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models, Atmospheric Science Letters, vol.10, pp.170-176, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00760199

J. Long and C. Robertson, Comparing spatial patterns, Geography Compass, vol.12, p.12356, 2018.

E. N. Lorenz, Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.20, pp.130-141, 1963.

J. Lough, A. Gupta, S. Power, M. Grose, and S. Mcgree, Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands. Vulnerability of Pacific Island agriculture and forestry to climate change, Pacific Community, pp.47-102, 2016.

Q. Lu, Z. Ruan, D. Wang, D. Chen, and Q. Wu, Zonal Transport from the Western Boundary and Its Role in Warm Water Volume Changes during ENSO, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.47, pp.211-225, 2017.

Z. Lu, Z. Liu, J. Zhu, and K. M. Cobb, A Review of Paleo El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Atmosphere, vol.9, p.130, 2018.

J. F. Lübbecke and M. J. Mcphaden, Assessing the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO Variability in Terms of the Bjerknes Stability Index, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.2577-2587, 2014.

M. L. L&apos;heureux, K. Takahashi, A. B. Watkins, A. G. Barnston, E. J. Becker et al., Observing and Predicting the 2015/16 El Niño, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.98, pp.1363-1382, 2017.

J. Ma and S. Xie, Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.2482-2501, 2013.

C. Maes, J. Picaut, Y. Kuroda, and K. Ando, Characteristics of the convergence zone at the eastern edge of the Pacific warm pool, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.31, 2004.

H. B. Mann and D. R. Whitney, On a Test of Whether one of Two Random Variables is Stochastically Larger than the Other, Ann. Math. Statist, vol.18, pp.50-60, 1947.

N. J. Mantua and D. S. Battisti, Evidence for the Delayed Oscillator Mechanism for ENSO: The "Observed" Oceanic Kelvin Mode in the Far Western Pacific, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.24, pp.691-699, 1994.

S. Marathe, K. Ashok, P. Swapna, and T. P. Sabin, Revisiting El Niño Modokis. Climate Dynamics, vol.45, pp.3527-3545, 2015.

T. Matveeva, D. Gushchina, and B. Dewitte, The seasonal relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability and ENSO in CMIP5. Geoscientific Model Development, vol.11, pp.2373-2392, 2018.

S. Mcgregor, A. Timmermann, M. H. England, O. E. Timm, and A. T. Wittenberg, Inferred changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries, Climate of the Past, vol.9, pp.2269-2284, 2013.

S. Mcgregor, A. Timmermann, F. Jin, and W. S. Kessler, Charging El Niño with off-equatorial westerly wind events, Climate Dynamics, vol.47, pp.1111-1125, 2016.

S. Mcgregor, A. Timmermann, N. Schneider, M. F. Stuecker, and M. H. England, The Effect of the South Pacific Convergence Zone on the Termination of El Niño Events and the Meridional Asymmetry of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.25, pp.5566-5586, 2012.

M. Mcphaden, A. Busalacchi, and D. Anderson, A TOGA Retrospective. Oceanography, vol.23, pp.86-103, 2010.

M. J. Mcphaden, 2012: A 21st century shift in the relationship between ENSO SST and warm water volume anomalies, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.398, pp.559-562, 1999.

M. J. Mcphaden, A. J. Busalacchi, R. Cheney, J. Donguy, K. S. Gage et al., The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.103, pp.14169-14240, 1998.

M. J. Mcphaden, T. Lee, and D. Mcclurg, El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.38, 2011.

M. J. Mcphaden and X. Yu, Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Niño, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.26, pp.2961-2964, 1999.

M. J. Mcphaden, S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz, ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science, vol.314, pp.1740-1745, 2006.

M. J. Mcphaden and X. Zhang, Asymmetry in zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.36, 2009.

G. A. Meehl, P. R. Gent, J. M. Arblaster, B. L. Otto-bliesner, E. C. Brady et al., Factors that affect the amplitude of El Niño in global coupled climate models, Climate Dynamics, vol.17, pp.515-526, 2001.

G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng et al., Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4, J. Climate, vol.26, pp.6287-6308, 2013.

C. S. Meinen and M. J. Mcphaden, Observations of Warm Water Volume Changes in the Equatorial Pacific and Their Relationship to El Niño and La Niña, Journal of Climate, vol.13, pp.3551-3559, 2000.

M. Meinshausen, S. J. Smith, K. Calvin, J. S. Daniel, M. L. Kainuma et al., The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, vol.109, pp.213-241, 2011.

C. E. Menkes, M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, M. Puy, P. Marchesiello et al., About the role of Westerly Wind Events in the possible development of an El Niño in 2014, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.41, pp.6476-6483, 2014.

Q. Min, J. Su, and R. Zhang, Impact of the South and North Pacific Meridional Modes on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Observational Analysis and Comparison, Journal of Climate, vol.30, pp.1705-1720, 2017.

B. Moon, Vertical structure variability in the equatorial Pacific before and after the Pacific climate shift of the 1970s, Geophysical Research Letters, p.31, 2004.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00765721

A. M. Moore and R. Kleeman, Stochastic Forcing of ENSO by the Intraseasonal Oscillation, Journal of Climate, vol.12, pp.1199-1220, 1999.

C. P. Morice, J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.117, 2012.

J. D. Neelin, D. S. Battisti, A. C. Hirst, F. Jin, Y. Wakata et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.103, pp.14261-14290, 1998.

J. D. Neelin and F. Jin, Modes of Interannual Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction-a Unified View. Part II: Analytical Results in the Weak-Coupling Limit, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.50, pp.3504-3522, 1993.

J. D. Neelin, H. F.-f.-jin, and . Syu, Variations in ENSO Phase Locking, Journal of Climate, vol.13, pp.2570-2590, 2000.

S. Neske and S. Mcgregor, Understanding the Warm Water Volume Precursor of ENSO Events and its Interdecadal Variation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, pp.1577-1585, 2018.

M. Newman, M. A. S.-i.-shin, and . Alexander, Natural variation in ENSO flavors, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.38, 2011.

Y. M. Okumura and C. Deser, Asymmetry in the Duration of El Niño and La Niña, Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.5826-5843, 2010.

W. Oleson, M. Lawrence, B. Bonan, G. Flanner, E. Kluzek et al., , 2010.

B. L. Otto-bliesner, E. C. Brady, J. Fasullo, A. Jahn, L. Landrum et al., Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.97, pp.735-754, 2016.

J. T. Overpeck, G. A. Meehl, S. Bony, and D. R. Easterling, Climate Data Challenges in the 21st Century, Science, vol.331, pp.700-702, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01134122

H. Paek, J. Yu, and C. Qian, Why were the 2015/2016 and 1997/1998 extreme El Niños different?: Contrasting, El Niños. Geophysical Research Letters, 1997.

T. Park, Y. Deng, M. Cai, J. Jeong, and R. Zhou, A dissection of the surface temperature biases in the Community Earth System Model, Climate Dynamics, vol.43, pp.2043-2059, 2014.

C. Penland and P. D. Sardeshmukh, The Optimal Growth of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Journal of Climate, vol.8, 1995.

D. T. Pham, S. S. Dimov, and C. D. Nguyen, Selection of K in K-means clustering, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, vol.219, pp.103-119, 2005.

S. G. Philander, El Niño, La Niña, and the southern oscillation. Number v. 46 in International geophysics series, 1990.

S. G. Philander and A. Fedorov, Is El Niño Sporadic or Cyclic?, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, vol.31, pp.579-594, 2003.

S. G. Philander, Anomalous El Niño of 1982-83, Nature, vol.305, p.16, 1983.

S. Philip and G. J. Van-oldenborgh, Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.33, 2006.

J. Picaut, M. Ioualalen, T. Delcroix, F. Masia, R. Murtugudde et al., The oceanic zone of convergence on the eastern edge of the Pacific warm pool: A synthesis of results and implications for El Niño-Southern Oscillation and biogeochemical phenomena, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.106, pp.2363-2386, 2001.

J. Picaut, M. Ioualalen, C. Menkes, T. Delcroix, and M. J. Mcphaden, Mechanism of the Zonal Displacements of the Pacific Warm Pool: Implications for ENSO, Science, vol.274, pp.1486-1489, 1996.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00772206

J. Picaut, F. Masia, and Y. D. Penhoat, An Advective-Reflective Conceptual Model for the Oscillatory Nature of the ENSO, Science, vol.277, pp.663-666, 1997.

Y. Planton, J. Vialard, E. Guilyardi, M. Lengaigne, and T. Izumo, Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Niña Than of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, pp.9824-9833, 2018.

S. Power, F. Delage, C. Chung, G. Kociuba, and K. Keay, Robust twenty-firstcentury projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability, Nature, vol.502, pp.541-545, 2013.

M. Puy, J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, and E. Guilyardi, Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves, Climate Dynamics, vol.46, pp.2155-2178, 2016.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01233843

M. Puy, J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, P. N. Dinezio et al., Influence of Westerly Wind Events stochasticity on El Niño amplitude: the case of 2014 vs, Climate Dynamics, 2015.

M. Puy, J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, A. Voldoire et al., Modulation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to westerly wind events by the oceanic background state, Climate Dynamics, 2016.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01492019

E. M. Rasmusson and T. H. Carpenter, Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño, Mon. Wea. Rev, vol.110, pp.354-384, 1982.

S. Ray and B. S. Giese, Historical changes in El Niño and La Niña characteristics in an ocean reanalysis, Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), vol.117, p.11007, 2012.

N. A. Rayner, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.108, p.4407, 2003.

H. Ren and F. Jin, 2013: Recharge Oscillator Mechanisms in Two Types of ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.38, pp.6506-6523, 2011.

I. Richter, Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: causes, impacts and ways forward, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol.6, pp.345-358, 2015.

K. B. Rodgers, P. Friederichs, and M. Latif, Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Relation to Decadal Modulations of ENSO, J. Climate, vol.17, pp.3761-3774, 2004.

D. Roemmich and B. Owens, The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability, Oceanography, vol.13, pp.45-50, 2000.

J. C. Rogers, The North Pacific Oscillation, Journal of Climatology, vol.1, pp.39-57, 1981.

C. F. Ropelewski and M. S. Halpert, Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Monthly Weather Review, vol.115, pp.1606-1626, 1987.

G. Rädel, T. Mauritsen, B. Stevens, D. Dommenget, D. Matei et al., Amplification of El Niño by cloud longwave coupling to atmospheric circulation, Nature Geoscience, vol.9, pp.106-110, 2016.

M. Saint-lu and J. Leloup, La Météorologie, 2016.

N. H. Saji and T. Yamagata, Structure of SST and Surface Wind Variability during Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events: COADS Observations*, Journal of Climate, vol.16, pp.2735-2751, 2003.

J. Sanabria, L. Bourrel, B. Dewitte, F. Frappart, P. Rau et al., Rainfall along the coast of Peru during strong El Niño events, International Journal of Climatology, vol.38, pp.1737-1747, 2018.

A. Santoso, S. Mcgregor, F. Jin, W. Cai, M. H. England et al., Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections, Nature, vol.504, pp.126-130, 2013.

A. Santoso, M. J. Mcphaden, and W. Cai, The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong, vol.55, pp.1079-1129, 2015.

P. S. Schopf and R. J. Burgman, A Simple Mechanism for ENSO Residuals and Asymmetry, Journal of Climate, vol.19, pp.3167-3179, 2006.

P. S. Schopf and D. E. Harrison, On Equatorial Waves and El Niño. I. Influence of Initial States on Wave-induced Currents and Warming, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.13, pp.936-948, 1983.

A. Seiki and Y. N. Takayabu, Westerly Wind Bursts and Their Relationship with Intraseasonal Variations and ENSO. Part I: Statistics, Monthly Weather Review, vol.135, pp.3325-3345, 2007.

S. Shin and S. An, Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, vol.54, pp.63-76, 2018.

A. Singh and T. Delcroix, Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO and their relationships to the recharge/discharge oscillator paradigm, Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, vol.82, pp.32-43, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00996363

A. Singh, T. Delcroix, and S. Cravatte, Contrasting the flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation using sea surface salinity observations, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.116, 2011.

N. Smith, W. S. Kessler, S. Cravatte, J. Sprintall, S. Wijffels et al., Tropical Pacific Observing System. Frontiers in Marine Science, vol.6, 2019.

R. Smith, P. Jones, B. Briegleb, F. Bryan, G. Danabasoglu et al., The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual ocean component of the community climate system model (CCSM) and community earth system model (CESM). Rep, vol.141, pp.1-140, 2010.

T. M. Smith, R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), Journal of Climate, vol.21, pp.2283-2296, 2008.

K. Stein, A. Timmermann, N. Schneider, F. Jin, and M. F. Stuecker, ENSO Seasonal Synchronization Theory, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.5285-5310, 2014.

S. Stevenson, A. Capotondi, J. Fasullo, and B. Otto-bliesner, Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context, Climate Dynamics, pp.1-16, 2017.

S. Stevenson, B. Fox-kemper, M. Jochum, B. Rajagopalan, and S. G. Yeager, ENSO Model Validation Using Wavelet Probability Analysis, vol.23, pp.5540-5547, 2010.

S. L. Stevenson, Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.39, 2012.

H. V. Storch and F. W. Zwiers, Statistical analysis in climate research, 1999.

M. F. Stuecker, Revisiting the Pacific Meridional Mode, Scientific Reports, vol.8, p.3216, 2018.

M. F. Stuecker, A. Timmermann, F. Jin, S. Mcgregor, and H. Ren, 2013: A combination mode of the annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Nature Geoscience, vol.6, pp.540-544

M. J. Suarez and P. S. Schopf, A Delayed Action Oscillator for ENSO, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.45, pp.3283-3287, 1988.

K. Takahashi and B. Dewitte, Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes, Climate Dynamics, vol.46, pp.1627-1645, 2016.

K. Takahashi, C. Karamperidou, and B. Dewitte, A theoretical model of strong and moderate El Niño regimes, Climate Dynamics, 2018.

K. Takahashi, A. Montecinos, K. Goubanova, and B. Dewitte, ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño, vol.38, 2011.

K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.93, pp.485-498

E. E. Thomas and D. J. Vimont, Modeling the Mechanisms of Linear and Nonlinear ENSO Responses to the Pacific Meridional Mode, Journal of Climate, vol.29, pp.8745-8761, 2016.

S. Thual, B. Dewitte, S. An, and N. Ayoub, Sensitivity of ENSO to Stratification in a Recharge-Discharge Conceptual Model, Journal of Climate, vol.24, pp.4332-4349, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00951074

S. Thual, B. Dewitte, S. An, S. Illig, and N. Ayoub, Influence of Recent Stratification Changes on ENSO Stability in a Conceptual Model of the Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Climate, vol.26, pp.4790-4802, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00951084

A. Timmermann, Decadal ENSO amplitude modulations: a nonlinear paradigm, Global and Planetary Change, vol.37, pp.135-156, 2003.

A. Timmermann, J. S.-i.-an, F. Kug, W. Jin, A. Cai et al.,

S. Luo, Y. Mcgregor, S. Planton, H. Power, H. Rashid et al., Nature, vol.559, pp.535-545, 2018.

A. Timmermann and F. Jin, A Nonlinear Mechanism for Decadal El Niño Amplitude Changes, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.29, pp.3-4, 2002.

A. Timmermann, J. F.-f.-jin, and . Abshagen, A Nonlinear Theory for El Niño Bursting, J. Atmos. Sci, vol.60, pp.152-165, 2003.

C. Torrence and G. P. Compo, A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.79, pp.61-78, 1998.

C. Torrence and P. J. Webster, Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO-Monsoon System, J. Climate, vol.12, pp.2679-2690, 1999.

K. E. Trenberth, Recent Observed Interdecadal Climate Changes in the Northern Hemisphere, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.71, pp.2771-2777, 1990.

K. E. Trenberth and D. P. Stepaniak, Indices of El Niño Evolution, Journal of Climate, vol.14, pp.1697-1701, 2001.

E. Tziperman, L. Stone, M. A. Cane, and H. Jarosh, El Nino Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator, Science, vol.264, pp.72-74, 1994.

G. J. Van-oldenborgh, S. Y. Philip, and M. Collins, El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study, Ocean Science, vol.1, pp.81-95, 2005.

B. Vannière, E. Guilyardi, G. Madec, F. J. Doblas-reyes, and S. Woolnough, Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO, Climate Dynamics, vol.40, pp.963-981, 2013.

G. A. Vecchi and D. E. Harrison, Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, El Niño, and Equatorial Westerly Wind Events, The Termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part I: Mechanisms of Oceanic Change*, vol.13, pp.2633-2646, 2000.

G. A. Vecchi and B. J. Soden, Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation, Journal of Climate, vol.20, pp.4316-4340, 2007.

G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa et al., Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing, Nature, vol.441, pp.73-76, 2006.

J. Vialard, C. Menkes, J. Boulanger, P. Delecluse, E. Guilyardi et al., A Model Study of Oceanic Mechanisms Affecting Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño, J. Phys. Oceanogr, vol.31, pp.1649-1675, 2001.

D. J. Vimont, J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, The Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO*, vol.16, pp.2668-2675, 2003.

B. Wang, Interdecadal Changes in El Niño Onset in the Last Four Decades, Journal of Climate, vol.8, pp.267-285, 1995.

C. Wang, A Unified Oscillator Model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate, vol.14, pp.98-115, 2001.

C. Wang and J. Picaut, Earth's Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Geophysical Monograph Serie, vol.147, pp.21-48, 2004.

C. Wang and R. H. Weisberg, The 1997-98 El Niño Evolution Relative to Previous El Niño Events, Journal of Climate, vol.13, pp.488-501, 2000.

G. Wang, W. Cai, B. Gan, L. Wu, A. Santoso et al., Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5°C warming stabilization, Nature Climate Change, vol.7, pp.568-572, 2017.

R. Wang and H. Ren, The linkage between two ENSO types/modes and the interdecadal changes of ENSO around the year 2000, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, vol.10, pp.168-174, 2017.

R. H. Weisberg and C. Wang, A Western Pacific Oscillator Paradigm for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.24, pp.779-782, 1997.

H. Weng, S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata, Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Niño Modoki and El Niño events, Climate Dynamics, vol.32, pp.663-674, 2009.

C. Wengel, M. Latif, W. Park, J. Harlaß, and T. Bayr, Seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model: The importance of the equatorial cold sea surface temperature bias, Climate Dynamics, vol.50, pp.901-919, 2018.

F. Wilcoxon, 1945: Individual Comparisons by Ranking Methods, Biometrics Bulletin, vol.1, pp.80-83

I. N. Williams and C. M. Patricola, Diversity of ENSO Events Unified by Convective Threshold Sea Surface Temperature: A Nonlinear ENSO Index, Geophysical Research Letters, 2018.

A. T. Wittenberg, Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.36, 2009.

A. T. Wittenberg, A. Rosati, N. Lau, and J. J. Ploshay, GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part III: Tropical Pacific Climate and ENSO, J. Climate, vol.19, pp.698-722, 2006.

M. D. Woelfle, S. Yu, C. S. Bretherton, and M. S. Pritchard, Sensitivity of Coupled Tropical Pacific Model Biases to Convective Parameterization in CESM1, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol.10, pp.126-144, 2018.

K. Wyrtki, El Niño-The Dynamic Response of the Equatorial Pacific Oceanto Atmospheric Forcing, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.8, p.7129, 1953.

B. Xiang, B. Wang, Q. Ding, F. Jin, X. Fu et al., 2012: Reduction of the thermocline feedback associated with mean SST bias in ENSO simulation, Climate Dynamics, vol.39, pp.1413-1430

R. Xie and F. Jin, Two Leading ENSO Modes and El Niño Types in the Zebiak-Cane Model, Journal of Climate, vol.31, pp.1943-1962, 2018.

S. Xie, C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, M. Collins, T. L. Delworth et al., Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change, Nature Climate Change, vol.5, pp.921-930, 2015.

S. Xie, C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng et al., Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall, Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.966-986, 2010.

S. Xie, Q. Peng, Y. Kamae, X. Zheng, H. Tokinaga et al., Eastern Pacific ITCZ Dipole and ENSO Diversity, Journal of Climate, vol.31, pp.4449-4462, 2018.

S. Xie and S. G. Philander, A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol.46, pp.340-350, 1994.

J. Xu and J. C. Chan, The Role of the Asian-Australian Monsoon System in the Onset Time of El Niño Events, Journal of Climate, vol.14, pp.418-433, 2001.

Y. Xue and A. Kumar, , vol.16, 2015.

, El Niño and historical perspective since 1979, Science China Earth Sciences, vol.60, pp.1572-1588

Y. Xue, C. Wen, A. Kumar, M. Balmaseda, Y. Fujii et al., 2017: A realtime ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring, Climate Dynamics, vol.49, pp.3647-3672

H. Yang and F. Wang, Revisiting the Thermocline Depth in the Equatorial Pacific*, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.3856-3863, 2009.

S. Yeh, Y. Ham, and J. Lee, Changes in the Tropical Pacific SST Trend from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and Its Implication of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.25, pp.7764-7771, 2012.

S. Yeh and B. P. Kirtman, Tropical Pacific decadal variability and ENSO amplitude modulation in a CGCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.109, 2004.

S. Yeh, B. P. Kirtman, J. Kug, W. Park, and M. Latif, Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.38, 2011.

S. Yeh, J. Kug, B. Dewitte, M. Kwon, B. P. Kirtman et al., El Niño in a changing climate, Nature, vol.461, pp.511-514, 2009.

S. Yeh, X. Wang, C. Wang, and B. Dewitte, On the Relationship between the North Pacific Climate Variability and the Central Pacific El Niño, Journal of Climate, vol.28, pp.663-677, 2015.

S. Yeh, B. Y. Yim, Y. Noh, and B. Dewitte, Changes in mixed layer depth under climate change projections in two CGCMs, Climate Dynamics, vol.33, pp.199-213, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00409324

J. Ying, P. Huang, T. Lian, and H. Tan, Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models, Climate Dynamics, vol.52, pp.1805-1818, 2019.

J. Yu and H. Kao, Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.112, pp.1958-2001, 2007.

J. Yu, H. Kao, and T. Lee, Subtropics-Related Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Central Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Climate, vol.23, pp.2869-2884, 2010.

J. Yu, H. Kao, T. Lee, and S. T. Kim, Subsurface ocean temperature indices for Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific types of El Niño and La Niña events, Theor Appl Climatol, vol.103, pp.337-344, 2010.

J. Yu and S. T. Kim, 2011: Relationships between Extratropical Sea Level Pressure Variations and the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific Types of ENSO, International Journal of Climatology, vol.37, pp.2105-2112, 2010.

J. Yu, M. Lu, and S. T. Kim, 2012: A change in the relationship between tropical central Pacific SST variability and the extratropical atmosphere around 1990, Environmental Research Letters, vol.7, p.34025

J. Yu and H. Paek, Precursors of ENSO beyond the tropical Pacific. Variations, vol.13, pp.15-20, 2015.

J. Yu, F. Sun, and H. Kao, Contributions of Indian Ocean and Monsoon Biases to the Excessive Biennial ENSO in CCSM3, Journal of Climate, vol.22, pp.1850-1858, 2009.

S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, A Model El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Mon. Wea. Rev, vol.115, pp.2262-2278, 1987.

H. Zelle, G. Appeldoorn, G. Burgers, and G. J. Van-oldenborgh, The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Thermocline Depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.34, pp.643-655, 2004.

H. Zhang, A. Clement, and P. D. Nezio, The South Pacific Meridional Mode: A Mechanism for ENSO-like Variability, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.769-783, 2014.

T. Zhang, X. Shao, and S. Li, Impacts of Atmospheric Processes on ENSO Asymmetry: A Comparison between CESM1 and CCSM4, vol.30, pp.9743-9762, 2017.

T. Zhang and D. Sun, ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP5 Models, Journal of Climate, vol.27, pp.4070-4093, 2014.

W. Zhang, H. Li, F. Jin, M. F. Stuecker, A. G. Turner et al., The Annual-Cycle Modulation of Meridional Asymmetry in ENSO's Atmospheric Response and Its Dependence on ENSO Zonal Structure, Journal of Climate, vol.28, pp.5795-5812, 2015.

X. Zhang, H. Liu, and M. Zhang, Double ITCZ in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, vol.42, pp.8651-8659, 2015.

X. Zheng, C. Hui, and S. Yeh, Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability, Climate Dynamics, vol.50, pp.4019-4035, 2018.

X. Zheng, S. Xie, L. Lv, and Z. Zhou, Intermodel Uncertainty in ENSO Amplitude Change Tied to Pacific Ocean Warming Pattern, Journal of Climate, vol.29, pp.7265-7279, 2016.

Y. Zheng, J. Lin, and T. Shinoda, The equatorial Pacific cold tongue simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Upper ocean heat budget and feedback analysis, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.117, 2012.

P. Zuidema, P. Chang, B. Medeiros, B. P. Kirtman, R. Mechoso et al., Challenges and Prospects for Reducing Coupled Climate Model SST Biases in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans: The U.S. CLIVAR Eastern Tropical Oceans Synthesis Working Group, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.97, pp.2305-2328, 2016.