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Noyades et traumatismes liés aux vagues et marées sur le littoral océanique girondin : épidémiologie, modélisation et prévention

Abstract : The Gironde coasts in southwestern France are shaped by ocean conditions. Sandy beaches are exposed to high-energy waves which create hazardous conditions with shore-break waves and rip currents. These phenomena cause drownings and potentially serious injuries, requiring patrolling and rescue means.The aims of this work were to study wave-related drownings and injuries (i.e. surf zone injuries, SZI) in several ways: by describing the population of victims, modelling the risks and identifying the actions needed to prevent them.First, the demographic characteristics and severity of SZI were described. By analysing calls to the Gironde Emergency Medical Aid Service, 652 drownings and 814 traumas were recorded. From these data and using meteorological data, a model was created to predict the risk of drowning on the Gironde surf coast. It was then validated, based on the weather forecasts. The risk of drowning due to rip-currents can thus be anticipated three days in advance. The risks factors of shorebreak related injury were also studied.A theoretical framework to describe the timeline of drowning, using a continuous Markov process, was proposed. It allowed, among other things, to simulate the theoretical impact of a reduction in rescue time on the severity of drownings. Shortening the median rescue time from 15 to 10 minutes would reduce severe drowning cases by half.Finally, the use of risk predictions in prevention action was discussed on the basis of concepts from a literature review. This work will make it possible to set up and evaluate an action to prevent SZI in Gironde.
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Submitted on : Monday, February 17, 2020 - 3:47:16 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-02481620, version 1



Eric Tellier. Noyades et traumatismes liés aux vagues et marées sur le littoral océanique girondin : épidémiologie, modélisation et prévention. Médecine humaine et pathologie. Université de Bordeaux, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019BORD0225⟩. ⟨tel-02481620⟩



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