, sécheresse de 1949), sa sévérité ainsi que sa durée auraient été encore plus fortes. La variabilité multi-décennale des nappes peut ainsi diminuer ou aggraver les évènements extrêmes, niveaux beaucoup plus faibles dès le début de la sécheresse

. Ionita, Une hypothèse simple est que ces évènements soient purement dus au hasard, à la variabilité chaotique de l'atmosphère. Le Pacifique Nord présente tout de même des anomalies de SST assez proche pour les trois sécheresses étudiées dans cette section, significatives pour l'année 1949, et légèrement pour l'année 1921, 2012.

, Pacifique Nord en hiver, associée à des évènements la Niña, et les sécheresses de l'humidité des sols en été sur l'Europe, via une modulation de la circulation atmosphérique. Cette configuration pourrait donc influencer l'apparition de sécheresses

, avec un évènement la Niña combiné à une phase froide de la PDV serait possiblement à l'origine de la persistance de dépression sur l'Europe, et donc plus favorable à des précipitations intenses sur une durée longue, À l'inverse, des températures plus froides dans le Pacifique

, Cette configuration atmosphérique limite l'arrivée et la formation d'évènements précipitants en France. Lors des phases multi-décennales positives des débits, l'inverse se produit. Ces fluctuations de la circulation atmosphérique grande échelle semblent modulées par la température de surface de l'Atlantique Nord, ainsi que du Pacifique Nord

, Cette variabilité multi-décennale hydroclimatique du bassin de la Seine influence les évènements extrêmes hydrologiques, principalement via une modulation de l'apport d'eau des nappes vers les rivières

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