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Theses

Impact des variations environnementales sur la transmission des maladies infectieuses: cas du choléra et du paludisme

Abstract : The research presented in the thesis is focused on the analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the transmission of malaria and cholera. The mathematical models developed in this thesis incorporate the mathematical models of the intra-annual variation of environmental factors to the existing mathematical models of these diseases studied. Malaria is a vector-borne disease caused by plasmodium; it is transmitted to humans by bites of anopheline mosquitoes. Transmission of malaria is influenced by the variability of climatic factors. The seasonality of malaria incidence is therefore due to climatic factors (rainfall and temperature). Cholera is a bacterial disease, its transmission is strongly influenced by environmental factors and some socio-economic factors such as hygiene standards and nutrition of the population. This thesis is devoted to the modelling of the impact of environmental factors and human behaviour on the transmission of cholera and malaria. To establish the assessment of environmental factors on the transmission of these infectious diseases, we examine the variation of prevalence of diseases according to season. Taking into account the effect of the intra-annual variation of climatic factors on the transmission of cholera and malaria, a non-autonomous ordinary differential equations are proposed to describe the dynamics of the transmission of cholera and malaria. When the intra-annual variation of climate is not incorporated into the model, the latter becomes autonomous. The basic reproductive number is calculated and the stabilities of equilibria are investigated. In the non-autonomous case, the disease extinction and uniform persistence of each disease are investigated. The results suggest that the transmission of malaria and cholera can be affected by climatic factors, the proportion of the undernourished individuals and the proportion of the people who respect the hygiene standards. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the evolution of transmission of each disease according to the different environmental factors.
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Ezekiel Dangbe. Impact des variations environnementales sur la transmission des maladies infectieuses: cas du choléra et du paludisme. Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]. Université de Ngaoundéré (Cameroun), 2019. Français. ⟨tel-02478649⟩

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