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Dynamique de l'occupation du sol dans le secteur Natitingou-Boukombé (nord-ouest bénin) : de l'analyse diachronique à une modélisation prospective

Abstract : In Benin, forests and savannahs are the predominant types of land use and constitute dynamic systems whose evolution depends on several environmental and anthropogenic factors. In the Natitingou-Boukombé sector (Northwestern Benin), most of these ecosystems are in degradation due to increased anthropogenic activities. The objective of this study is to quantify the landscape dynamics and explore all possible future land use using remote sensing tools. The data used are mainly Landsat TM satellite images from 1987, ETM+ from 2000, OLIR TIRS from 2016, Modis VCF and NDVI series from 2000 to 2016. A multi-date classification was used to quantify land use changes in this study area.The results show that between 1987 and 2016, the landscape initially dominated by clear forests and wooded savannahs (38.81%) and wooded savannahs and shrubs (25.82%) in 1987 was replaced by land use categories, the most important of which were wooded savannahs and shrubs (40.53%) and cropland and fallow mosaics (50.61%) in 2016. Human activities and climatic disturbances are the main determinants of this land use dynamics. These explanatory factors, combined with the prospective analysis, made it possible to explore three possible future-oriented scenarios by 2031.The Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU) extrapolating current trends shows that by 2031 the landscape of this study area will be dominated by mosaics of crops and fallow land (69.64%), tree and shrub savannahs (21.93%), saxicultural savannahs (3.6%) and agglomerations (2.66%). In the Rapid Economic Growth (REC) scenario, which focuses solely on increasing agricultural production, the landscape will consist mainly of mosaics of crops and fallow land (73.72%), wooded savannahs and shrubs (17.35%), saxicultural savannahs (3.7%) and agglomerations (3.06%). The Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CED) scenario, which incorporates environmental preservation, presents a landscape essentially composed of mosaics of crops and fallows (67.97%), wooded savannahs and shrubs (22.6%), saxicultural savannahs (3.7%), agglomerations (2.3%), clear forests and wooded savannahs (1.7%) and plantations (1.05%). In the latter scenario, there is therefore an effort to restore wooded savannahs and shrubs, clear forests and wooded savannahs and plantations.This landscape, on which the survival of populations depends, is evolving in the sense of its degradation. And it will get worse by 2031 if nothing is done. But the results obtained in the Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CED) scenario show that hope is possible if the authorities in charge of land management and the environment integrate the stolen environmental preservation into their decision-making.
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Bidossèssi Thierry Agbanou. Dynamique de l'occupation du sol dans le secteur Natitingou-Boukombé (nord-ouest bénin) : de l'analyse diachronique à une modélisation prospective. Géographie. Université Toulouse le Mirail - Toulouse II; Université nationale du Bénin, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018TOU20076⟩. ⟨tel-02476241⟩

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