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, the SMB increases from 338 Gt yr -1 in the present to 457 Gt yr -1 at the end of the 21 st century. SMB is increased quite uniformly, by 30 to 40% for individual basins (Tab. 1). The future SMB pattern is very similar to the present day, Surface Mass Balance (SMB) Considering all the glacier drainage basins from Getz to Abbot (Fig.5)

. Ligtenberg, Runoff becomes non-zero in half of the basins due to increased melt rates in a warmer climate, but it is still 2 to 3 orders of magnitude smaller than SMB (Tab. 1). Rainfall also becomes more common in a warmer climate, 2013.

, We now briefly investigate the possible origin of increased SMB in a warmer climate

, Changes in SMB can be explained by two distinct mechanisms: increase of available humidity for precipitation as temperature increase following the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and favored by increased evaporation where sea ice has decreased, and change in the circulation that may lead to southward flow anomaly and warm and moist air intrusion over the ice-sheet

;. First and . Ligtenberg, This southward anomaly does not correspond to the seasonal pattern of SMB changes where largest increase is observed in the fall season and not in summer, which suggests that the simulated circulation changes do not play a significant role in increased snowfall. Changes in sea ice concentration can explain the seasonal pattern. Largest SMB changes are obtained in fall, which is the season when sea ice concentration decreases the most along the the future with the results from the anomaly method where the anomaly represents the climate future minus present of this chosen GCM. Similar evaluation was undertaken by Yoshikane et al. (2012) in another region. The results were positive, but they were partly domain-dependent and the anomaly method needs to be evaluated specifically for the Antarctica climate. Over the Greenland ice-sheet, a previous study showed that adding a mean climate warming (e.g. +1,+1.5 or+2°C directly to ERA-Interim) was almost equivalent to downscaling a GCM producing the same warming, SMB sensitivity changes to surface air temperature of +8.3% °C -1 , corresponding to an increase of 30.8% of SMB with an increase of 3.7°C in mean over the grounded ice of all the domain configuration between the present and the future. This results is above the literature range of ~5-7% .°C -1, 2005.

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. Jourdain, Notre étude montre que le réchauffement prédit par Spence et al., (2014) au voisinage des plateformes n'apparaît pas lorsque les interactions entre l'océan et la glace sont modélisées. Ceci est lié à la circulation induite par la fonte à l'interface glace/océan, qui permet la mise en place d'une circulation à l'intérieur mais aussi à l'extérieur de la cavité, ce qui modifie les échanges avec l, Austral dans un climat plus chaud pouvait réchauffer l'océan de sub-surface autour de la calotte (de 0.5 °C en Mer d'Amundsen), 2017.

, Pour autant, ce résultat ne dit rien sur les rétroactions entre l'océan et la dynamique glaciaire

, Nous avons observé la mise en place d'une rétroaction positive entre le retrait de la cavité et la fonte, qui peut être multipliée par un facteur allant jusqu'à 2.5 sous Thwaites et Pine Island dans les siècles à venir. En effet, le recul des glaciers expose davantage de glace aux eaux relativement chaudes en profondeur, et ce surplus de fonte renforce la circulation dans la cavité, ce qui renforce les échanges turbulents à l'interface océan/glace et donc la fonte. Nos résultats montrent l'importance de mettre en place un couplage glace/océan avec une fonte calculée en fonction de la vitesse de la circulation, Pour étudier cet aspect, nous avons analysé un cas extrême de retrait de lignes d'échouages et de formes de cavités obtenus précédemment pour un climat plus chaud, et nous avons imposé cette évolution dans nos simulations océaniques régionales

. Palerme, La fonte océanique n'est pas la seule variable présentant des difficultés pour obtenir des projections robustes de contribution de l'Antarctique au niveau des mers. En effet, le bilan de masse de surface (SMB), qui fait l'objet de la seconde partie de ma thèse, présente encore des incertitudes élevées, 2017.

. Palerme, Pour cette raison, il est souvent nécessaire d'utiliser un modèle régional dédié aux régions polaires, Les modèles de climat globaux, tels que ceux participant à CMIP, ont généralement une représentation assez simple des processus polaires entrant en jeu dans le SMB, et présentent généralement des biais assez importants, 2015.

. Lenaerts, Dans cette thèse, nous avons utilisé le modèle atmosphérique MAR pour établir des projections de SMB dans le secteur d'Amundsen. En effet, le modèle MAR semble Chapitre 5 : Conclusions et Perspectives, 2017.

, Les autres modes de variabilité climatique ont un effet plus faible : ENSO explique un pourcentage de variance du SMB estival inférieur à 10%, et l'effet du SAM en été n'est pas significatif. Notons que le SAM peut cependant expliquer une large partie de la variance du SMB sur d'autres saisons

, En faisant une descente d'échelle dynamique de l'anomalie multi-modèle CMIP5 sous le scénario RCP8.5, nous avons obtenu une hausse, de 30-40% du SMB sur les parties posées des glaciers d'Amundsen pour la fin du 21 ème siècle. Ceci est majoritairement lié à la relation de

, Clausius-Clapeyron qui indique qu'un air plus chaud peut contenir davantage d'humidité, ainsi qu'à une diminution de la couverture de glace de mer qui permet davantage d'évaporation

, L'augmentation du bilan de masse de surface projetée en réponse à un scénario RCP8.5 est équivalente à une baisse de 0.33 mm/an de niveau des mers, ce qui compenserait l'effet de la dynamique glaciaire si celle-ci

, SMB, la fonte de surface suscite désormais beaucoup d'intérêts. En effet, certaines plateformes comme Larsen A, Larsen B et Prince Gustav ont affiché des taux de fonte de surface moyens supérieurs à 725 mm.w.eq/an pendant plusieurs années et se sont successivement effondrées, supprimant ainsi l'effet d'arc boutant et permettant l, 2004.

. Scambos, Un mécanisme d'hydrofracturation a été proposé : lorsque la fonte de surface est suffisamment importante, l'eau s'écoule dans les crevasses et les Chapitre 5 : Conclusions et Perspectives Bibliographie Chapitre 5, 2014.

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