Analyse bayésienne de la gerbe d'éclats provoquée pa l'explosion d'une bombe à fragmentation naturelle

Abstract : During this thesis, a method of statistical analysis on sheaf of bomb fragments, in particular on their masses, has been developed. Three samples of incomplete experimental data and a mechanical model which simulate the explosion of a ring were availables. First, a statistical model based on the mechanical model has been designed, to generate data similar to those of an experience. Then, the distribution of the masses has been studied. The classical methods of analysis being not accurate enough, a new method has been developed. It consists in representing the mass by a random variable built from a basis of chaos polynomials. This method gives good results however it doesn't allow to take into account the link between slivers. Therefore, we decided to model the masses by a stochastic process, and not a random variable. The range of fragments, which depends of the masses, has also been modeled by a process. Last, a sensibility analysis has been carried out on this range with Sobol indices. Since these indices are applied to random variables, it was necessary to adapt them to stochastic process in a way that take into account the links between the fragments. In the last part, it is shown how the results of this analysis could be improved. Specifically, the indices presented in the last part are adapted to dependent variables and therefore, they could be suitable to processes with non independent increases.
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Emeline Gayrard. Analyse bayésienne de la gerbe d'éclats provoquée pa l'explosion d'une bombe à fragmentation naturelle. Probabilités [math.PR]. Université Clermont Auvergne, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019CLFAC039⟩. ⟨tel-02461049⟩

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