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Estimation des coûts économiques des inondations par des approches de type physique sur exposition

Abstract : This research was conducted within the framework of the Caisse Centrale de Réassurance's (CCR) R&D objective - to widen the scope of impacts estimated by its flood impact model. In chapter one, we study the various impacts of a flood and their interdependencies in order to create a classification of impacts. This classification allows us to design the architecture of a global impact model built from linking specific impacts models where the outputs of one model are the inputs of the following one. This approach generates an estimation with a breakdown by type of impact. It also allows us to understand the domino effects from the direct damage to the macroeconomic impacts. In chapter two, we study models for car damages according to CCR's specifications. The requirements are: the model should be independent from other natural catastrophes and impacts estimations and it should be able to model both a specific event and the total annual load. Through this work we describe, implement, and identify issues with possible improvements of three modelling approaches: -a simple linear regression, CCR's presently used method, -a frequency x severity model associated to the extreme value theory, widely used in the insurance business sector, -a model that pairs a physical model with exposure through damage curves. CCR already uses this approach to estimate damage to buildings. Hence, we are using CCR's flood hazard model and develop an exposure model and a damage model specific to cars. CCR is in charge of the accounting management of the Agricultural National Risk Management Fund on behalf of the State. Hence, chapter three contains state of the art modeling solutions for this risk and description of the designed model and its implementation. A vulnerability model and a damage model specific to the agricultural risk are developed and paired with CCR's flood hazard model. The vulnerability model uses the Graphic Parcel Register database. The damage model is based on the damage curves developed by IRSTEA for the national think tank on flood cost-benefit analysis. Chapter four is a technical document that will allow CCR to continue the development of the global model. It presents a situational analysis of what has been done (cars and agricultural risks) and of ongoing works (business interruption due to direct damage). For the remaining impacts, it presents the modeling issues, a short research review and the conclusions reached in terms of modeling
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Submitted on : Monday, January 27, 2020 - 3:31:26 PM
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Gwladys Mao. Estimation des coûts économiques des inondations par des approches de type physique sur exposition. Gestion et management. Université de Lyon, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019LYSE1192⟩. ⟨tel-02456743⟩

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