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Prévision multi-échelle par agrégation de forêts aléatoires. Application à la consommation électrique.

Abstract : This thesis has two objectives. A first objective concerns the forecast of a total load in the context of Smart Grids using approaches that are based on the bottom-up forecasting method. The second objective is based on the study of random forests when observations are dependent, more precisely on time series. In this context, we are extending the consistency results of Breiman’s random forests as well as the convergence rates for a simplified random forest that have both been hitherto only established for independent and identically distributed observations. The last contribution on random forests describes a new methodology that incorporates the time-dependent structure in the construction of forests and thus have a gain in performance in the case of time series, illustrated with an application of load forecasting of a building.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02421110
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Submitted on : Friday, December 20, 2019 - 11:48:08 AM
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Benjamin Goehry. Prévision multi-échelle par agrégation de forêts aléatoires. Application à la consommation électrique.. Méthodologie [stat.ME]. Université Paris-Saclay, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019SACLS461⟩. ⟨tel-02421110⟩

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