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Financial evaluation of entrepreneurial strategic choice

Abstract : The objective of this dissertation is to develop the quantitative models that adopt the real options analysis for financially evaluating the entrepreneurial strategic choices. However, it does not only focus on the technical aspects (or its mathematical methodologies). The models proposed in the dissertation aim to provide the practically useful information in order for both entrepreneurs and investors to make decisions in the contractual negotiation of financing and investing in the start-ups and ventures.This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part gives the definitions of the essential concepts that shall be incorporated into the research question. Adopting the perspectives that are provided in entrepreneurial finance leads us to focus on the fair negotiations among participants in the process of decision-making, while the traditional corporate finance emphasises the principal-agent problem. Actually, the common methods, such as Discounted Cash-Flows and Internal Rate of Return, are not always suitable for implementing financial valuations in the context of entrepreneurial finance. Therefore, the research question of this dissertation can be set as follows: How should strategic choices in contract negotiation be financially evaluated?In order to deal with this problem, three particular issues are introduced in the second part. The real options analysis is utilised in all of the three issues, which is quite suitable for analysing them.The first article deals with the issue of licensing contract with bio-pharma venture. In summary, when closing a licensing contract negotiation, those in charge of the negotiation must consider many factors, such as the phases of R&D, the investment costs and the market volatility. In addition to those, the interaction of the participants of the contractual negotiation should be taken into account. For modelling this relationship, the assumption of dynamic interaction between licensor and licensee is introduced.The second article focuses on the dilution problem in the second financing round under the existence of convertible note holders. According to the simulation results, “discount” and “valuation cap” have a great impact on the equity decision-making cost. The results also show that the costs increase when the degree of discount becomes greater and the valuation cap becomes smaller. This may jeopardize the success of negotiation. Entrepreneurs should take these factors into consideration in the second financing round.The third article analyses the exit choice (acquisition or IPO), especially the “IPO valuation premium puzzle” proposed by Bayar et Chemmanur (2011). While entrepreneurs and venture capitalists prefer an IPO, acquisition can be chosen. Utilising the game theory, this contradictory phenomenon can be explained as the two Nash equilibria. In addition to financial market risks, entrepreneurs should pay attention to the relationship with venture capitalists, when they choose the exit strategy.
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Yasuharu Imai. Financial evaluation of entrepreneurial strategic choice. Business administration. Normandie Université, 2019. English. ⟨NNT : 2019NORMC022⟩. ⟨tel-02400106⟩

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