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Contributions au provisionnement en assurance de personnes et à la gestion des risques

Abstract : In the insurance sector, the latest regulatory developments and accounting standards are in line with the standardization of risk management within organizations. In this context, the main objec-tive of my thesis is to propose different methodologies for risk evaluation and analysis in this sec-tor. The first part of this manuscript deals with the problem of individual non-life reserving. I pro-posed adaptations of machine learning algorithms and some performance metrics for the estima-tion of the durations of the claims as well as the ultimate claims in the presence of right censored data. The application of these methods to property and consumer loans insurance contracts or group protection contracts leads to better and more robust estimates of the parameters consid-ered. The second part presents a one-year shock estimation approach on entity-specific parame-ters (Undertaking Specific Parameters) of the life-sustaining health module of Pillar 1 of the Solven-cy II standard formula. The use of American credibility (or limited variation credibility) allows partial consideration of the availability constraints of data (volume and historical depth of data) when calibrating shocks. By way of illustration, I applied this approach to incidence and recovery (or non-recovery) of incapacity and disability risks. The results obtained show significant decreases in sol-vency capital requirements (SCR) of underwriting risk need compared to the standard formula cal-culation. The third part is a descriptive study of the calculations of the standard formula for eco-nomic solvency capital need of long term care risk. The main purpose is to highlight the inadequa-cies of the standard formula and to suggest ways of improving them in order to better take into account the specificities of this risk. Finally, in the last part of the manuscript, I proposed a compar-ative study of risk attitude preferences in the financial sector, including banking and insurance. This is an empirical analysis conducted in three geographical areas (America, Europe and Africa) to measure the links and differences between risk attitude profiles and sociodemographic variables
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Submitted on : Friday, November 15, 2019 - 2:19:24 PM
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Anani Ayodélé Olympio. Contributions au provisionnement en assurance de personnes et à la gestion des risques. Gestion et management. Université de Lyon, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019LYSE1148⟩. ⟨tel-02365540⟩



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