Gestion en futaie régulière d'une forêt à plusieurs classes d'âge et allocation des terres en présence d'un risque de tempête : caractérisation des états stationnaires et rôle des préférences

Abstract : The storm risk has a strong impact on forest management, directly through the damages a storm can cause and indirectly through induced precautionary behaviors.This PhD thesis addresses the issue of even-aged forest management with multiple age-classes in presence of a storm risk and when the producer has recursive preferences. Unlike expected utility preferences, recursive preferences distinguish between risk aversion and intertemporal preferences.An original analytical approach based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, as well as a numerical stochastic dynamic programming approach are used to characterize stationary states and to clarify the role of determinants, in particular the role of preferences. In addition, the analysis is extended to the issues of land allocation and climate change.Results show that the storm risk combined with preferences leads forest producers to reduce the average rotation age out of precaution, as it permits to reduce the forest exposure and vulnerability. Moreover, land use diversification in favor of activities without risk and providing a regular income is shown to be another option to adapt to the storm risk. Finally, producers' expectations of an increase in the storm risk probability, which comes along climate change, are revealed as another source of precautionary behavior.In all the situations considered, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences are shown to have distinct roles, confirming that recursive preferences are relevant to deal with this type of issues.
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Gaspard Dumollard. Gestion en futaie régulière d'une forêt à plusieurs classes d'âge et allocation des terres en présence d'un risque de tempête : caractérisation des états stationnaires et rôle des préférences. Economies et finances. Université Paris-Saclay, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016SACLA019⟩. ⟨tel-02303244⟩

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