G. Specically, to identify the eects of uncertainty shocks, I estimate country-specic VARs linking stock prices, unemployment rates, and real GDP, 2009.

A. They-include,

. Estonia, . Iceland, L. Latvia, and S. , OECD member countries

J. M. Abowd and F. Kramarz, The cost of hiring and separations, 1997.

J. M. Abowd and F. Kramarz, The costs of hiring and separations, Labour Economics, vol.10, issue.5, p.530, 2003.

S. Adjemian, H. Bastani, F. Karame, M. Juillard, J. Maih et al., Dynare. Reference manual, 2014.

M. Aguiar and G. Gopinath, Emerging market business cycles: The cycle is the trend, Journal of Political Economy, vol.115, issue.1, p.69102, 2007.

M. Alexopoulos and J. Cohen, Uncertain Times, Uncertain Measures, 2009.

M. Amiti and L. Cameron, Trade liberalization and the wage skill premium: Evidence from indonesia, Journal of International Economics, vol.87, issue.2, p.287, 2012.

R. Anand and P. Khera, Macroeconomic Impact of Product and Labor Market Reforms on Informality and Unemployment in India. IMF Working Papers 16/47, 2016.

J. E. Anderson and E. Van-wincoop, Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle, American Economic Review, vol.93, issue.1, p.170192, 2003.

D. Andolfatto, Business cycles and labor-market search, The American Economic Review, issue.1, p.112132, 1996.

M. Andreasen, J. Fernandez-villaverde, and J. Rubio-ramirez, The Pruned StateSpace System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications, 2013.

J. P. Araujo and M. Rodrigues, Taxation, credit constraints and the informal economy, EconomiA, vol.17, issue.1, p.55, 2016.

M. Bacchetta, E. Bustamante, and J. , Globalization and informal jobs in developing countries. A joint study of the International Labour Oce and the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization, 2009.

R. Bachmann, S. Elstner, and E. Sims, Uncertainty and economic activity: evidence from business survey data, AEJ.:Macroeconomics, vol.5, issue.2, 2013.

O. Bargain and P. Kwenda, The informal sector wage gap: New evidence using quantile estimations on panel data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol.63, p.117153, 2014.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00967324

O. Bargain and P. Magejo, Is Informality Bad? Evidence from Brazil, Mexico and South Africa. IZA Discussion Papers 4711, 2010.

S. Basu and B. Bundick, Uncertainty shocks in a model of eective demand, Econometrica, vol.85, p.937958, 2017.

N. Batini, P. Levine, E. Lotti, and B. Yang, Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy. School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, 2011.

P. Benigno, Price stability with imperfect nancial integration, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.41, p.121149, 2009.

B. S. Bernanke, Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.98, issue.1, p.85106, 1983.

A. B. Bernard, J. Eaton, J. B. Jensen, and S. Kortum, Plants and productivity in international trade, American Economic Review, vol.93, issue.4, p.12681290, 2003.

S. Bhattarai, A. Chatterjee, and W. Park, Global Spillover Eects of US Uncertainty, 2016.

F. Bilbiie, F. Ghironi, and M. Melitz, Endogenous entry, product variety, and business cycles, Journal of Political Economy, vol.120, issue.2, p.304345, 2012.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00515667

N. Bloom, The impact of uncertainty shocks, Econometrica, vol.77, issue.3, p.623685, 2009.

N. Bloom, Fluctuations in uncertainty, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.28, issue.2, p.153176, 2014.

N. Bloom, M. Floetotto, N. Jaimovich, I. Saporta, and S. Terry, , 2012.

B. Born and J. Pfeifer, Risk matters: The real eects of volatility shocks: Comment, American Economic Review, vol.104, issue.12, p.423139, 2014.

M. Bosch and J. Esteban-pretel, The labor market eects of introducing unemployment benets in an economy with high informality, European Economic Review, vol.75, p.17, 2015.

M. Bosch, E. G. Ni-pacchioni, and W. Maloney, Trade liberalization, labor reforms and formal-informal employment dynamics, Labour Economics, vol.19, issue.5, pp.653-667, 2007.

F. Busato and B. Chiarini, Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model, Economic Theory, vol.23, issue.4, p.831861, 2004.

M. Cacciatore and G. Fiori, The macroeconomi eets of good and labor markets deregulation, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.20, p.124, 2016.

M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori, and F. Ghironi, Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union, Journal of International Economics, p.99, 2016.

M. Cacciatore, F. Ghironi, and . Mimeo, Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy, 2014.

G. Caggiano, E. Castelnuovo, and N. Groshenny, Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in u.s. recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.67, p.92, 2014.

Y. Carriére-swallow and L. F. Cépedes, The impact of uncertainty shock in emerging economies, Journal of International Economics, vol.90, p.316325, 2013.

O. Charlot, F. Malherbet, and C. Terra, Informality in developing economies: Regulation and scal policies, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.51, p.127, 2015.

J. C. Conesa, C. Díaz-moreno, and J. E. Galdón-sánchez, Explaining cross-country dierences in participation rates and aggregate uctuations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.26, issue.2, p.345, 2002.

D. Cook and H. Nosaka, Dual labor markets and business cycles, Proceedings, 2006.

H. Dellas, D. Malliaropulos, D. Papageorgiou, and E. Vourvachaki, Fiscal policy with an informal sector, Working Papers, vol.235, 2017.

W. Den-haan, G. Ramey, and J. Watson, Job destruction and propagation of shocks, American Economic Review, vol.90, p.482498, 2000.

R. Dix-carneiro and B. K. Kovak, Trade liberalization and regional dynamics, American Economic Review, vol.107, issue.10, p.290846, 2017.

S. Djankov, R. La-porta, F. Lopez-de-silanes, and A. Shleifer, The regulation of entry, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.117, p.137, 2002.

M. Ebell and C. Haefke, Product market deregulation and the us employment miracle, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.12, p.479504, 2009.

M. Elsby, B. Hobijn, and A. Sahin, Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD, 2008.

P. Epifani and G. Gancia, Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and factor prices, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.88, issue.4, p.583598, 2006.

R. Feenstra, A homothetic utility function for monopolistic competition models, without constant price elasticity, Economics Letters, vol.78, issue.1, p.7986, 2003.

J. Fernandez-villaverde, P. Guerron-quintana, J. Rubio-ramirez, and M. Uribe, Risk matters: The real eects of volatility shocks, American Economic Review, vol.101, p.25302561, 2011.

C. J. Flinn, Minimum wage eects on labor market outcomes under search, matching, and endogenous contact rates, Econometrica, vol.74, issue.4, p.10131062, 2006.

A. Fogli and F. Perri, Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.69, p.115, 2015.

S. Fujita and G. Ramey, The cyclicality of separation and job nding rates, International Economic Review, vol.50, issue.2, p.415430, 2009.

L. Gasparini and L. Tornarolli, Labor Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Patterns and Trends from Household Survey Microdata. CEDLAS, Working Papers 0046, 2007.

F. Ghironi and M. Melitz, International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with heterogeneous rms, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.120, p.856915, 2005.

P. K. Goldberg and N. Pavcnik, The response of the informal sector to trade liberalization, Journal of Development Economics, vol.72, issue.2, p.496, 2003.

P. K. Goldberg and N. Pavcnik, Distributional eects of globalization in developing countries, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.45, issue.1, p.3982, 2007.

G. Gonzaga, N. M. Filho, and C. Terra, Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings dierentials in brazil, Journal of International Economics, vol.68, issue.2, p.367, 2006.

F. Gourio, M. Siemer, and A. Verdelhan, International risk cycles, Journal of International Economics, vol.89, p.471484, 2013.

E. Guglielminetti, The labor market channel of macroeconomic uncertainty. Working Paper Banca dItalia 1068, 2016.

J. Hairault, T. Lebarbanchon, and T. Sopraseuth, The cyclicality of the separation and job nding rates in france, European Economic Review, vol.76, p.6084, 2015.

J. Haltiwanger, S. Scarpetta, and H. Schweiger, Assessing job ows across conntries: The role of industry, rm size and regulations, 2006.

J. Heintz and R. Pollin, Informalization , economic growth and the challenge of creating viable labor standards in developing countries, 2003.

E. Helpman, O. Itskhoki, and S. Redding, Inequality and unemployment in a global economy, Econometrica, vol.78, issue.4, p.12391283, 2010.

A. Hosios, On the eciency of matching and and related models of search and unemployment, Review of Economic Studies, vol.57, p.279298, 1990.

. Ilo, Enterprise formalization: Fact or ction? New ILO/GIZ study on what works to formalize enterprises, 2015.

J. Jütting, J. Parlevliet, and T. Xenogiani, Informal Employment Re-loaded. OECD Development Centre Working Papers 266, 2008.

S. Kim and J. Lee, Accounting for ins and outs of unemployment in korea, Korea and the World Economy, vol.15, issue.1, p.1744, 2014.

R. Kollmann, International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.72, p.115124, 2016.

B. K. Kovak, Regional eects of trade reform: What is the correct measure of liberalization?, American Economic Review, vol.103, issue.5, 2013.

F. Kramarz and M. Michaud, The shape of hiring and separation costs in france, Labour Economics, vol.17, issue.1, p.37, 2010.

S. Leduc and Z. Liu, Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.82, p.2035, 2016.

B. Lochner, Employment protection in dual labor markets: Any amplication of macroeconomic shocks?, 2014.

K. Matsuyama, Beyond icebergs: Towards a theory of biased globalization, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.74, issue.1, p.237253, 2007.

B. Mccaig, Exporting out of poverty: Provincial poverty in vietnam and u.s. market access, Journal of International Economics, vol.85, issue.1, p.113, 2011.

M. J. Melitz, The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity, Econometrica, vol.71, issue.6, p.16951725, 2003.

N. A. Menezes-filho and M. Muendler, Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform, 2011.

C. Merkl and T. Schmitz, Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market: First results from the euro experiment, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.27, issue.1, p.4460, 2011.

H. Miyamoto, Uncertainty shocks and labor market dynamics in Japan. Working paper, 2016.

D. Mortensen and C. Pissarides, Job creation and job destruction in the theory of unemployment, Review of Economic Studies, p.397415, 1994.

D. Mortensen and C. Pissarides, Job Reallocation, Employment Fluctuations and Unemployment, p.11711228, 1999.

G. Nicoletti and S. Scarpetta, Regulation, productivity and growth: Oecd evidence. Economic Policy, vol.18, p.972, 2003.

. Oecd, OECD Employment Outlook, 2015.

. Oecd, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015:Innovation for growth and society, 2015.

S. Oh and T. Sopraseuth, Frim entry, search and matching in a small open economy faced with uncertainty shocks: The case of korea, 2017.

R. Orsi, D. Raggi, and F. Turino, Size, trend, and policy implications of the underground economy, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.17, issue.3, p.436, 2014.

E. Pappa, R. Sajedi, and E. Vella, Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption, Journal of International Economics, p.96, 2015.

B. Petrongolo and C. Pissarides, Looking into the black box : A survey of the matching function, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.39, p.390431, 2001.

B. Petrongolo and C. A. Pissarides, The ins and outs of european unemployment, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.2, p.25662, 2008.

C. Pissarides, , 2001.

M. Riegler, The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Job-Finding Rate and Separation Rate. Mimeo, 2015.

R. Robertson, Relative prices and wage inequality: evidence from mexico, Journal of International Economics, vol.64, issue.2, p.409, 2004.

F. Rumler and J. Scharler, Labor Market Institutions And Macroeconomic Volatility In A Panel Of Oecd Countries, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol.58, issue.3, p.396413, 2011.

M. Satchi and J. Temple, Labor markets and productivity in developing countries, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.12, issue.1, p.204, 2009.

E. Schaal, Uncertainty and unemployment, Econometrica, 2017.

F. Schneider and D. H. Enste, Shadow economies: Size, causes, and consequences, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.38, issue.1, p.77114, 2000.

R. Shimer, Reassessing the ins and outs of unemployment, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.15, p.127148, 2012.

F. Slonimczyk, The eect of taxation on informal employment: evidence from the Russian at tax reform, 2011.

C. Thomas and F. Zanetti, Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the euro area, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.56, issue.6, p.899, 2009.

E. A. Verhoogen, Trade, quality upgrading, and wage inequality in the mexican manufacturing sector*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.123, issue.2, p.489530, 2008.

M. Waseem, Taxes, informality and income shifting: Evidence from a recent pakistani tax reform, Journal of Public Economics, vol.157, p.77, 2018.

F. Zanetti, Labor market institutions and aggregate uctuations in a search and matching model, European Economic Review, vol.55, issue.5, p.658, 2011.

Y. Zenou, Job search and mobility in developing countries. theory and policy implications, Journal of Development Economics, vol.86, issue.2, p.355, 2008.

Y. Zhang and G. Wan, Globalization and the urban poor in china, 2006.