. Captor, Cancer Pharmacology of Toulouse-Oncopole and Region") qui porte sur un projet de recherche consacré à l'innovation, l'évaluation, la diusion des médicaments anti-cancéreux ainsi qu'à la formation relative à ces domaines, et éga-lement du soutient du projet HATICE

, Avec l'utilisation d'un modèle Gamma-Poisson pour l'inclusion et un modèle exponentiel pour les données de survie, Anisimov [5] obtient de bonnes prédictions du nombre d'événements. Une perspective serait de développer un modèle plus n que le modèle précédent, dans lequel une chaîne de Markov en temps continu est associée à chaque patient et dont les états représentent les diérentes étapes de la progression de la maladie durant l'essai (à risque, Dans le cas des données de survie, un nouveau problème apparait : ce qui est utile de connaitre n'est pas nécessairement le nombre de patients mais le nombre d'événe-ments d'intérêt à la n de l'essai

, Cet axe d'étude est depuis quelque temps particulièrement étudié, avec ajout de covariables sur les états des patients lors des visites, nous pouvons ainsi citer [58, 59] pour des modèles simples, ainsi que [23, 29, 41] sur des modèles mixtes ou avec ltrage

, Covariables déterminant les taux d'inclusion Le point clé pour une bonne prédiction du temps de recrutement est une estimation la plus précise possible des intensités de recrutement de chaque centre. La recherche des covariables pouvant inuencer la valeur de ces intensités permettrait d'améliorer la précision de la prédiction

, Il pourrait également être intéressant de modéliser les perturbations sur la dynamique de recrutement en terme de covariables pouvant être modélisée selon la même méthode bayésienne utilisée pour les intensités (le choix de la distribution sera à considérer)

, Les perspectives théoriques concernent essentiellement les processus de Cox

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