Modèles hydrologiques régionaux pour la prévision distribuée des crues rapides : vers une estimation des impacts et des dommages potentiels

Abstract : With the development of rainfall measurements at highspatial and temporal resolutions, the use of distributed hydrometeorological models is now considered to forecast flash floods on small and ungauged catchment areas. Current flashflood monitoring systems generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-flood magnitudes. However they do not assess the potential impacts of flash-flood, which highly depends on the catchment areas configuration and on the importance of potentially affected assets. The purpose of this PhD research work was to develop and test a method which can be used to directly estimate the impacts of flash-floods, based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-run off model. The approach is based on a prior analysis of the study area in order to assess the potential impact of different discharge levels on the flooded areas and to identify from geography database the associated buildings at risk. The aim is to build impact models on specific river reaches, using discharge versus impact graphs. The use of these impact models combined with a rainfall-run off model, has enabled us to compute maps of potential impacts, based on real time assessment of flood events updated every 15 minutes. This method was evaluated on two case studies looking at the accuracy and relevance of estimated impacts for each event – and comparing the outcomes to insurance losses data. This research work has helped to confirm the efficiency of this new combined method, which may become a useful tool to forecast large-scale effects of local impacts of flash-floods.
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [215 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02193701
Contributor : Abes Star <>
Submitted on : Thursday, July 25, 2019 - 4:57:25 PM
Last modification on : Friday, July 26, 2019 - 1:12:57 AM

File

G_LE_BIHAN.pdf
Version validated by the jury (STAR)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : tel-02193701, version 2

Collections

Citation

Guillaume Le Bihan. Modèles hydrologiques régionaux pour la prévision distribuée des crues rapides : vers une estimation des impacts et des dommages potentiels. Milieux fluides et réactifs. École centrale de Nantes, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016ECDN0011⟩. ⟨tel-02193701v2⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

223

Files downloads

42