Risque d'insécurité alimentaire et crises : Impacts du commerce, du régime alimentaire et de l'amplification sociale du risque

Abstract : The beginning of the 21st century is marked by two episodes of global food price spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11, respectively. These price increases have worsened the level of food insecurity in many developing countries and have led to social unrest in some countries. Identifying the factors that contribute to increase the risk of food insecurity and understand the mechanisms that underpin the outbreak of a food crisis could help to improve food policy management.This thesis contributes to this objective. Chapter 2 estimates the different components of food supply variability by using disaggregated data of food balance sheets. Our results suggest that more than half of food supply variability is caused by country-specific shocks. Global shocks account for about 1% of the total variability.Chapter 3 shows that the impact of international trade on food supply variability depends on the country's portfolio of trade agreements. Chapter 4 uses the theoretical framework of bank panics and builds on work on perceived risk and cognitive biases to model consumer food purchasing behavior under uncertainty. We show how social amplification of risk can lead to precautionary storage and in fine self-fulfilling food crisis. We also highlight the social utility of reliable public information. Finally, Chapter 5 examines the impact of dietary composition on the probability of occurrence of social unrest in case of soaring world food prices. Our results suggest that the cereal concentration of the diet increases significantly the probability of social unrest.
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Théophile Bassene. Risque d'insécurité alimentaire et crises : Impacts du commerce, du régime alimentaire et de l'amplification sociale du risque. Economies et finances. Agrocampus Ouest, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018NSARE052⟩. ⟨tel-02170691⟩

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