Les impacts du changement climatique sur les pluies et les inondations extrêmes de bassins versants méso-échelles méditerranéens

Abstract : Northern mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features. The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this CIFRE thesis is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. The climate change impact on extreme precipitation events is assessed over high-resolution EMCORDEX simulations. The focus is on the Orbieu catchment located in southwestern France. The futurization method is applied to six major events of precipitation that trigger flash floods. The hydrological impacts of those future statistical counterpart precipitation events are therefore assessed through a conceptual event-based hydrological model. An assessment of soil moisture changes under climate change is performed and coupled to the hydrological impact quantification. The conceptual hydrological model chosen, have been motivated by its future operational applications. The consequences of that choice are assessed through a comparison to a physically based hydrological model. It has been implemented through the hydrological functioning caracterisation of the Orbieu catchment supported by several field campaigns.
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Antoine Colmet-Daage. Les impacts du changement climatique sur les pluies et les inondations extrêmes de bassins versants méso-échelles méditerranéens. Hydrologie. Université Montpellier, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018MONTG020⟩. ⟨tel-02162332⟩

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