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Modélisation et optimisation de la gestion d’une épidémie : quel impact du paysage ?

Abstract : How to identify effective strategies to manage the epidemics impacting crops?The answer to this question is not obvious because of the complexity of epidemics (they simultaneously depend on biological processes, patch organization in the landscape, and human interventions). To answer that question, models can be used because of their ability to simulate many scenarios. Indeed, they can enable to estimate epidemiological parameters, to assess the efficiency of different management strategies and to optimize them.In this context, we developed a generic framework for in silico optimization of plant disease management strategies at the landscape scale. This framework is based on (i) the characterization of the epidemic dynamics to estimate its key parameters, (ii) the use of a spatially explicit model to simulate the dynamics and management of this disease and (iii) the use of numerical optimization methods to identify efficient management strategies. Here, we apply this approach to sharka, caused by Plum pox virus. This disease has a worldwide impact on the Prunus industry and is associated with huge management costs in many countries. In France, the management strategy for this disease principally consists of orchard surveillance, removal of trees that might contribute to the epidemic propagation, and plantation bans.My PhD indicates that some strategies should be more profitable than the one currently applied in France. These strategies require less orchard surveillance and do not impose any plantation ban. It turns out that some of these strategies are efficient for all tested landscape types, which may be interesting in practice for risk managers. This approach was applied to the sharka, but could be transposed to optimize the management of other epidemics.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, June 18, 2019 - 5:10:12 PM
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Coralie Picard. Modélisation et optimisation de la gestion d’une épidémie : quel impact du paysage ?. Sciences agricoles. Montpellier SupAgro, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018NSAM0026⟩. ⟨tel-02159393⟩



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