Contribution aux choix de modélisation pour la contruction de structures multi-échelle sous incertitudes

Abstract : Scale structures under uncertainties. The design of multi-scale structures is based on predictive and experimental modelling. To achieve a high level of precision, modelling rest on a high number of experimental tests and sophisticated analytical and numerical developments integrating all possible knowledge about the quantity of interest. Adding knowledge into models diminishes the uncertainty on quantities of interest and significantly impacts the cost of modelling, a high impact factor on the design cost. The designer must be able to control the suitability of the integration of knowledge into the prediction of quantities of interest and its impact on the cost of modelling. The research carried out in this work is structured around the development of a methodology of assistance to the design under uncertainties allowing the designer to choose combinations between several predictive and experimental models, called modelling paths, presenting different compromises between the cost of modelling and the uncertainty on quantities of interest. The work is based on a pyramidal representation of experimental and predictive modelling. Random and epistemic uncertainties related to materials, models and geometrical tolerances are aggregated and propagated in the pyramid up to the quantities of interest of the structure. An adaptive method based on fuzzy logics for estimating the cost of modelling has been proposed. The multi objective problem aiming to minimizing the uncertainties on the quantities of interest and the cost of modelling is solved by means of the « NSGA-II » genetic algorithm, allowing to identify robust optimized modelling paths. This methodology is applied to a thick composite vessel for hydrogen storage. The proposed methodology demonstrates the possibility of rationalization of experimental and predictive models carried out to obtain the burst pressure of the vessel with a controlled precision. In a second step, the methodology is used to redesign the vessel considering larger or smaller volumes and with different burst pressure targets. Robust modelling paths obtained deliver design solutions adapted to the redesign requirements with a controlled modelling cost and a managed level of uncertainty.
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Ernesto Rodriguez Pila. Contribution aux choix de modélisation pour la contruction de structures multi-échelle sous incertitudes. Mécanique des structures [physics.class-ph]. Université de Bordeaux, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018BORD0222⟩. ⟨tel-02147050⟩

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