The development of the fire diffusion law by modelling the level of danger and its evolution over time. : comparison with experimental data in Lebanese forests

Abstract : Wildland fires are one of the most complex phenomena facing our societies. Lebanon, a part of Middle East, is losing its green forests dramatically mainly due to severe fires. This dissertation studies the phenomenon of forest fires. It proposes new models and methodologies to tackle the crisis of forest fires particularly in Lebanon and Mediterranean. It is divided into two main parts: New Approaches in Forest Fire Prediction and Forest Fire modeling. The first part is sub-divided into 3 chapters. First chapter presents an analytical study of the most widely used metrological models that can predict forest fires. In the second chapter we apply five data mining techniques methods: Neural Networks, Decision Tree, Fuzzy Logic, Linear Discriminate Analysis and Support Vector Machine. We aim to find the most accurate technique in forecasting forest fires. In the third chapter, we use different correlative data analysis techniques (Regression, Pearson, Spearman and Kendall-tau) to evaluate the correlation between fire occurrence and meteorological data (Temperature, Dew point, Soil temperature, Humidity, Precipitation and Wind speed). This allows to find the most influential parameters that affect the occurrence of fire, which lead us to develop a new Lebanese fire danger Index (LI). The proposed index is then validated using meteorological data for the years 2015-2016. The second part is sub-divided into 3 chapters. The first chapter reviews the fire behavior characteristics and its morphology; and focuses on the validity of mathematical and computer fire behavior models. The second chapter manifests the importance of cellular automata, explains the main types of cellular automata and reviews some applications in various domains. In the third chapter, we use cellular automata to develop a new behavior model for predicting the spread of fire, on elliptical basis, in both homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes .The proposed methodology incorporates the parameters of wind speed, fuel and topography. The developed model is then used to simulate the wildfire that swept through the forest of Aandqet village, North Lebanon. Obtained simulation results are compared with reported results of the real incident and with simulations done on Karafyllidis model and Gazmeh-Modified Karafyllidis model. These comparisons have proven the outperformance of the proposed model. In this dissertation, the crisis of forest fires has been studied and new models have been developed in both phases: pre-fire and post-fire. These models can be used as efficient preventive tools in forest fire management.
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Nizar Hamadeh. The development of the fire diffusion law by modelling the level of danger and its evolution over time. : comparison with experimental data in Lebanese forests. Applications [stat.AP]. Université d'Angers, 2017. English. ⟨NNT : 2017ANGE0060⟩. ⟨tel-02145748⟩

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