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Le terme source des panaches de téphras : applications radars aux volcans Etna et Stromboli (Italie)

Abstract : Volcanic tephra plumes are one of the major volcanic hazards. To forecast their dispersion and the impact zones of their fallout, the numerical models used in operational monitoring are based on eruptive parameters, called the source term, characterizing the plume emission. Source term parameters are challenging to measure in real time. This is why dispersion models are often based on past eruptive scenarios and use empirical laws that relate plume heights to source mass fluxes. However, the model outputs are not well constrained, averaged over the eruption duration, and suffer from large uncertainties. In this topic, Doppler radars are capable of probing the interior of eruptive columns and plumes at high space-time resolution and can provide crucial constraints on the source term in real time. This thesis deals with applications in operational monitoring of dedicated volcanological radars, potentially transposable to most common meteorological radars, to provide eruptive parameters at the source of tephra plumes but also to constrain the dynamics and internal mass load of eruptive columns, volcanic plumes and their fallout.A measurement campaign at Stromboli volcano has shown the capabilities of an innovative coupling between an optical disdrometer (Parsivel2) and a new 3-mm wave Doppler radar (Mini-BASTA). Owing to its high spatio-temporal resolution (12.5 m and 1 s), intermittent sedimentation patterns were observed in the fallout of dilute transient plumes typical of normal strombolian activity. These features, also recorded with the disdrometer, measuring the particle settling speeds and sizes, were reproduced in the laboratory using an analog model. A conceptual model for the formation of reversed sedimentation thermals is proposed to explain these features. It implies that processes leading to irregular sedimentation typical of sustained concentrated strong plumes can be applied to dilute weak plumes, including those formed by normal transient Strombolian activity. Then, a physical characterization of a large number of ash particles sampled at Stromboli allowed the validation of particle size and terminal velocity measurements by the disdrometer in the field and in the laboratory, arguing in favor of its operational use. Then, a physical characterization of a large number of ash particles sampled at Stromboli allowed to validate the measurements of size and terminal velocity of falls by disdrometer in the field and in laboratory, justifying also its operational use. From these constraints, a law relating ash concentrations with calculated reflectivity factors was found and compared to in situ radar measurements inside ash plumes and fallout. The modal and maximum internal concentrations of Strombolian plumes are at about 1 × 10-5 kg m-3 and 7.5 × 10-4 kg m-3 respectively, well above the threshold for aviation safety. Ash concentrations in the fallout range from 1.9× 10-8 to 2.4 × 10-6 kg m-3 with a mode at about 4 × 10-7 kg m-3.Finally, this thesis work shows operational applications of the UHF VOLDORAD 2B radar for the monitoring of explosive activity at Etna. A methodology, applicable to any Doppler radar, has been developed to obtain tephra mass eruption rates in real time from a mass proxy, based only on measured ejection velocities and power, and calibrated with an eruptive column model taking crosswinds into account. Tephra mass fluxes found for 47 paroxysms between 2011 and 2015 range from 3 × 104 to over 3 × 106 kg s-1. Then, tephra plumes heights of four Etna paroxysms were simulated using the eruptive column model Plume-MoM from the radar-derived mass eruption rates and were found consistent with real-time observations made by visible imagery and by X-band radar. This last part demonstrates the capabilities of VOLDORAD 2B to provide quantitative input parameters for dispersion models in the case of future Etna paroxysms. (...)
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Submitted on : Wednesday, April 3, 2019 - 3:07:08 PM
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Valentin Freret-Lorgeril. Le terme source des panaches de téphras : applications radars aux volcans Etna et Stromboli (Italie). Sciences de la Terre. Université Clermont Auvergne, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018CLFAC057⟩. ⟨tel-02089169⟩



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