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Évaluation du gisement éolien dans un contexte insulaire complexe : le cas de l'île de La Réunion

Abstract : This doctoral thesis proposes a methodology to identify and quantify the wind power resource in a context characterized by a complex topography and a strong competition for land use, and then it applies it to the case of Reunion island. Our approach is interdisciplinary by using in turn law, geography, statistics and physics to quantify the wind power resource in Reunion Island, then economics to cost the mining of this deposit and to formulate public policies to support wind power generation. The first part of the thesis assesses the impact of land regulatory framework on the wind power resource defined in terms of installable peak power. This regulatory framework is defined in terms of scenarios depicting the social and environmental challenges associated with wind power generation in Reunion Island. A methodology based on Geographic Information Systems is developed to identify the spatial distribution of installable wind farms and to assess the impact of an evolution of land legal framework in Reunion. The second part of the thesis aims at quantifying the wind power on sites accessible from a regulatory point of view. The thesis presents a methodology to study the joint distribution of horizontal wind speed and direction based on the analysis of its seasonal and daily variations, and identifies the different wind regimes in force in Reunion. The thesis supports the use of Weibull distribution model on ground of probability theory, and provides evidence of superiority of using a mixture of Weibull distributions conditional on wind direction to quantify the wind power resource of an accessible site with respect to the use of the conventional marginal two parameters Weibull model. The thesis also provides a methodology to construct the geographical information regarding ground obstacles necessary for profiling the vertical wind shear profile in Reunion. Then, the thesis proposes two spatial prediction methods to assess the spatial distribution of wind resource allowing its estimation from the observations recorded at the available weather stations, and uses these methods to model the spatial evolution of the wind speed mean and variation coefficient. The last part of the thesis provides a method to cross assess the regulatory public policy and the public subsidy policy for wind power generation through feed-in-tariff schemes. For each regulatory scenario, we identify the wind power plants which are profitable under existing feed-in-tariff schemes. For each regulatory scenario, we also evaluate the level at which the feed-in-tariff must be set to reach public objectives of wind power development in Reunion, which allows to assess the amount of public subsidy needed to achieve these objectives.
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Vincent Déodat. Évaluation du gisement éolien dans un contexte insulaire complexe : le cas de l'île de La Réunion. Economies et finances. Université de la Réunion, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017LARE0057⟩. ⟨tel-02082926⟩

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