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Changement climatique et migrations humaines au Sénégal : une approche en termes de vulnérabilité du système socio-écologique

Abstract : Climate change and human migration are two major issues of our time. Starting from the observation of a dichotomous knowledge between maximalists and minimalists, which results in a limited capacity of scientific research to take into account the dynamic and complex interactions between climate and human migrations, this thesis proposes a better understanding and explanation of the climate-migration relations through a renewed and integrative approach (the vulnerability of the socio-ecological system). It aims to fulfill two objectives. On the one hand, to produce new knowledges those take into accounts socio-ecological interactions and feedbacks at different spatial and temporal scales and, on the other hand, to propose a quantified instrumentation of these social-ecological interactions and feedback. This contribution could serve as a starting point for a decision-making tool to evolve towards more targeted and effective policies.This thesis emphasizes a certain difficulty in highlighting a robust relationship between climate change and migration in the Sahel region. This latter, often seen as a relatively homogeneous entity, presents complex socio-economic and physical-climatic spatial heterogeneities that do not allow a stronger understanding of migratory movements which are in change since the 1970s. For this purpose, a reduced complexity model, based both on a partitioning of the study area (Senegal) and a partitioning of data (agro-ecological zones and regions of Senegal), is mobilized as a framework for the analysis of social-ecological migrations in terms of vulnerability induced by climate change. Thus, the innovative heuristic framework built (knowledge model with a sequencing of variables) has made it possible to instrument the climate-migration relationships within Senegal.Our results show an accelerating/amplifying climatic effect of interregional migrations underlying the living conditions of populations. In general, climate alone is not sufficient to "produce" migration. The climatic effects channel through the socio-economic variables (initial vulnerability). Under these results, we retained in fine the name of "eco-climatic migrants". Thus, policies relating to eco-climatic migration in this western part of the Sahel should move towards both: (i) development issues by reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities (poverty and inequality) by acting on the environment and the populations consistently and extensively respectively; and (ii) climate economics issues by reducing the physical-climatic vulnerability through appropriate mitigating and adapting policies to face climate change.
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Submitted on : Monday, February 4, 2019 - 3:55:35 PM
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Alassane Diallo. Changement climatique et migrations humaines au Sénégal : une approche en termes de vulnérabilité du système socio-écologique. Economies et finances. Université Grenoble Alpes; Université Cheikh Anta Diop (Dakar), 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018GREAE004⟩. ⟨tel-02006424⟩



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