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Performance shaping factor based human reliability assessment using valuation-based systems : application to railway operations

Abstract : Humans are and remain one of the critical constituents of modern transport operations. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods provide a multi-disciplinary approach: systems engineering and cognitive science methods to evaluate the interaction between humans and the system. This thesis proposes a novel HRA methodology acronymed PRELUDE (Performance shaping factor based human REliability assessment using vaLUation-baseD systEms). Performance shaping factors (PSFs) are used to characterize a dangerous operational context. The proposed framework of Valuation-based System (VBS) and belief functions theory (BFT) uses mathematical rules to formalize the use of expert data and construction of a human reliability model capable of representing all kinds of uncertainty. PRELUDE is able to predict the human error probability given a context, and also provide a formal feedback to reduce the said probability. The second part of this work demonstrates the feasibility of PRELUDE with empirical data from simulators. A protocol to obtain data, a transformation and data analysis method is presented. An experimental simulator campaign is carried out to illustrate the proposition. Thus, PRELUDE is able to integrate data from multiple sources (empirical and expert) and types (objective and subjective). This thesis, hence address the problem of human error analysis, taking into account the evolution of the HRA domain over the years by proposing a novel HRA methodology. It also keeps the rail industry’s usability in mind, providing a quantitative results which can easily be integrated with traditional risk analyses. In an increasingly complex and demanding world, PRELUDE will provide rail operators and regulatory authorities a method to ensure human interaction-related risk is understood and managed appropriately in its context.
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Subeer Rangra. Performance shaping factor based human reliability assessment using valuation-based systems : application to railway operations. Human-Computer Interaction [cs.HC]. Université de Technologie de Compiègne, 2017. English. ⟨NNT : 2017COMP2375⟩. ⟨tel-02004305⟩

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