Coporate Bond Valuation and Credit Spreads : Lessons from the Finacial Crisis

Abstract : The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the improvement of the valuation of corporate bonds, particularly by drawing some lessons from the recent economic and financial crisis. In order to achieve this goal, we propose an approach based on corporate bonds' credit spreads. We start, in the first chapter, by analyzing the main existing valuation models, which we reformulate from the standpoint of credit spreads and which we simulate numerically. We show that, despite the attractive features that the structural models have, the latter exert contain several shortcomings which may be misleading especially in a crisis context. In the second and third chapters, we focus on the empirical credit spreads, which we analyze during the subprime crisis and the Eurozone crisis periods. By the means of : (i) a descriptive analysis, (ii) principal component analyses, and(iii) statistical regression analyses, we manage to shed light on a number of factors which affect the movements of the spreads and have not been addressed by the existing models. Among these factors, we show that : (i) the wave of bailouts that occurred during the crisis has had an important effect on the spreads, and (ii) the size of a firm is connected with its spreads. Based on these empirical results, we propose in the fourth chapter a contribution to the modeling of corporate bonds which accounts for the possibility of firms to negotiate a rescue plan in case of distress. This model allows us, on the one hand, to reproduce the empirical observations of lower credit spreads for higher probabilities of receiving a bailout (as it is the case for large banks), and on the other hand, to tackle several drawbacks of the existing models, such as the simple bankruptcy mechanisms or the low credit spreads for short maturities.
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Achraf Seddik. Coporate Bond Valuation and Credit Spreads : Lessons from the Finacial Crisis. Economics and Finance. Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2015. English. ⟨NNT : 2015USPCD081⟩. ⟨tel-01985758⟩

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