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Projection Climatique du Rayonnement Ultraviolet au cours du 21ème siècle : impact de différents scénarios climatiques

Abstract : Following the 1987 Montreal Protocol, atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances are decreasing. The ozone layer shows signs of recovery. Nonetheless, greenhouse gases emissions (GHG) are rising et should affect the ozone distribution in the atmosphere. Ozone is an important due to his ability to absorb ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The goal of this work is to analyse the possible evolution of UV radiation through the 21st century, particularly in the tropics, for possible climate modification. The first part of this work is to UV in clear-sky in the tropics with the TUV (Madronich et al., 1998) model and to compare against ground-based observations made on Reunion Island. This validation allows the utilisation of TUV in the tropics with a good confidence level. The sensitivity of the model is analysed for multiple parameters. Modelling output is validated against spectral ground-based measurement. Climate Projection of UVI (Mc Kinlay and Diffey, 1987) are then realized with the use of output from model participating in the CCMI ( Model Initiative) exercise and the TUV model. CCMI output describes the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere through the 21st century for four climate scenarios (RCP2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5), they are used as input for the TUV model in order to obtain UV radiation. ODS, GHG and aerosols impact on UVI evolution is analysed.
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Kévin Lamy. Projection Climatique du Rayonnement Ultraviolet au cours du 21ème siècle : impact de différents scénarios climatiques. Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]. Université de la Réunion, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018LARE0018⟩. ⟨tel-01979875⟩

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