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Méthodes de pilotage des flux avec prise : en compte des incertitudes prévisionnelles

Abstract : Production Planning, as part of tactical operations integrated into the Supply Chain process, is a key procedure allowing decisioners to balance demand and production resources. One of its most challenging issues is to handle uncertainties, especially the ones coming from the Forecasted Demand. In order to manage indicators at stake, such as service level and costs, best practices increasing flexibility in the process are implemented, as Rolling-Plan Framework. However, it creates instability since the updates procedures make the data set on change constantly. Consequently, although the gain in terms of flexibility is non-negligible for the uncertainties management, it generates on the other hand dynamics complexity. We study in this work how to deal this dynamics complexity generated by updates of the Forecasted Demand made in a Rolling-Plan Framework of a Production Planning Process. In particular, the question to which it answers is how to optimize the Production Plan in such a context. This issue is tackled considering a single item single level production system. A general mathematical model in the context of our study is built to be exploitable for analytical optimization. A theoretical optimization framework is designed, and a specific solutions computation framework using stochastic dynamic programming is developed. We apply it in some precise study cases in order to compute optimal solutions and get some valuable analytical results thanks to a dynamic computation process. The optimality of the solutions is proven through an inductive reasoning based on expectations computation. Solutions are finally implemented and calculated numerically with simulations in some particular numerical examples. Analyses and sensitivity studies are performed, highlighting the performances of our optimization method.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01939425
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Submitted on : Thursday, November 29, 2018 - 2:29:07 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-01939425, version 1

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Maxime Claisse. Méthodes de pilotage des flux avec prise : en compte des incertitudes prévisionnelles. Autre [cs.OH]. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018SACLC022⟩. ⟨tel-01939425⟩

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