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Stochastic description of rare events for complex dynamics in the Solar System

Abstract : The present thesis describes four complex dynamical systems. In each system, the long-term behavior is controlled by a few number of slow variables that can be clearly identified. We show that in the limit of a large timescale separation between the slow variables and the other variables, stochastic averaging can be performed and leads to an effective dynamics for the set of slow variables. This thesis also deals with rare events predictions in the solar system. We consider two possible rare events. The first one is a very large variation of the spin axis orientation of a Moonless Earth. The second one is the disintegration of the inner solar system because of an instability in Mercury’s orbit. Both systems are controlled by non-trivial slow variables that are not given by simple physical quantities. Stochastic averaging has led to the discovery of the mechanism leading to those rare events and gives theoretical bases to compute the rare events probabilities. We also show that Mercury’s short-term destabilizations (compared to the age of the solar system) follow an instanton mechanism, and can be predicted using large deviation theory. The special algorithms devoted to the computation of rare event probabilities can thus find surprising applications in the field of celestial mechanics. We have used for the first time stochastic averaging in the field of celestial mechanics to give a relevant orders of magnitude for the long-term perturbation of planetary orbits by asteroids. A part of the work is about geophysical fluid mechanics. In Jupiter atmosphere, large scale structures (jets) can be observed, the typical time of evolution of which is much larger than that of the surrounding turbulence. We show for the first time that the mean wind velocity can be obtained explicitly by averaging the fast turbulent degrees of freedom.
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Éric Woillez. Stochastic description of rare events for complex dynamics in the Solar System. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]. Université de Lyon, 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018LYSEN046⟩. ⟨tel-01930004⟩

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