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Probability distortion in clinical judgment : field study and laboratory experiments

Abstract : This thesis studies probability distortion in clinical judgment to compare physicians’ judgment with statistical models. We considered that physicians form their clinical judgment by integrating an analytical component and an intuitive component. We documented that physicians may suffer from several biases in the way they evaluate and integrate the two components. This dissertation gathers findings from the field and the lab. With actual medical data practice, we found that physicians were not as good as the statistical models at integrating consistently medical evidence. They over­estimated small probabilities that the patient had the disease and under­ estimated large probabilities. We found that their biased probability judgment might cause unnecessary health care treatment. How then can we improve physician judgment? First, we considered to replace physician judgment by the probability generated from our statistical model. To actually improve decision it was necessary to develop a statistical score that combines the analytical model, the intuitive component of the physician and his observed deviation from the expected decision. Second, we tested in the lab factors that may affect information processing. We found that participants’ ability to learn about the value of the analytical component, without external feedback, depends on the quality of their intuitive component and their working memory. We also found that participants’ ability to integrate both components together depends on their working memory but not their evaluation of the intuitive component.
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Submitted on : Monday, November 19, 2018 - 10:25:52 AM
Last modification on : Friday, August 21, 2020 - 6:02:53 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, February 20, 2019 - 1:42:13 PM


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  • HAL Id : tel-01926277, version 1



Marine Hainguerlot. Probability distortion in clinical judgment : field study and laboratory experiments. Economics and Finance. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2017. English. ⟨NNT : 2017PA01E034⟩. ⟨tel-01926277⟩



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