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Interest rates modeling for insurance : interpolation, extrapolation, and forecasting

Abstract : The Own Risk Solvency and Assessment (ORSA) is a set of processes defined by the European prudential directive Solvency II, that serve for decision-making and strategic analysis. In the context of ORSA, insurance companies are required to assess their solvency needs in a continuous and prospective way. For this purpose, they notably need to forecast their balance sheet -asset and liabilities- over a defined horizon. In this work, we specifically focus on the asset forecasting part. This thesis is about the Yield Curve, Forecasting, and Forecasting the Yield Curve. We present a few novel techniques for the construction, the extrapolation of static curves (that is, curves which are constructed at a fixed date), and for forecasting the spot interest rates over time. Throughout the text, when we say "Yield Curve", we actually mean "Discount curve". That is: we ignore the counterparty credit risk, and consider that the curves are risk-free. Though, the same techniques could be applied to construct/forecast the actual risk-free curves and credit spread curves, and combine both to obtain pseudo- discount curves incorporating the counterparty credit risk
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Thierry Moudiki. Interest rates modeling for insurance : interpolation, extrapolation, and forecasting. Business administration. Université de Lyon, 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018LYSE1110⟩. ⟨tel-01921512⟩

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