, 8-Estimated coefficients for covariates Sources : NCFP, author's own calculations. Notes : Fr refers to France while Run refers to Reunion Island, HS is High School

*. ,

*. 1%, Sample size : for France 1+ 2570062, 2+ 1603249, 3+ 533187 ; for Reunion 1+ 55498, 2+ 36958, 3+ 14862. The estimations are based on a sample of mothers aged between 21 and 40 years old

D. Bibliographie-aaronson, J. H. Davis, and L. Hu, Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate, Chicago Fed Letter, vol.296, 2012.

J. M. Abowd and F. Kramarz, The costs of hiring and separations, Labour Economics, vol.10, issue.5, pp.499-530, 2003.

J. M. Abowd, F. Kramarz, D. N. Margolis, and T. Philippon, Minimum Wages and Employment in France and the United States, 2006.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00370392

J. M. Agüero and M. S. Marks, Motherhood and Female Labor Force Participation : Evidence from Infertility Shocks, The American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.2, pp.500-504, 2008.

J. M. Agüero and M. S. Marks, Motherhood and Female Labor Supply in the Developing World Evidence from Infertility Shocks, Journal of Human Resources, vol.46, issue.4, pp.800-826, 2011.

J. W. Albrecht and B. Axell, An Equilibrium Model of Search Unemployment, Journal of Political Economy, vol.92, issue.5, pp.824-840, 1984.

M. Alexopoulos and J. Cohen, Uncertain Times, Uncertain Measures, 2009 Meeting Papers 1211, 2015.

D. Andolfatto, Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search, The American Economic Review, vol.86, issue.1, pp.112-132, 1996.

M. M. Andreasen, J. Fernández-villaverde, and J. Rubio-ramírez, The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models : Theory and Empirical Applications, 2013.
DOI : 10.3386/w18983

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w18983

J. Angrist, V. Lavy, and A. Schlosser, Multiple Experiments for the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children, Journal of Labor Economics, vol.28, issue.4, pp.773-824, 2010.

J. Angrist and S. Pischke, Mostly Harmless Econometrics : An empiricist's Companion, 2009.

J. D. Angrist, Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors : Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol.19, issue.1, pp.2-16, 2001.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.237485

URL : http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/1721.1/63581/1/estimationoflimi00angr.pdf

J. D. Angrist, Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Theory and Practice, The Economic Journal, vol.114, issue.494, pp.52-83, 2004.
DOI : 10.3386/w9708

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w9708

J. D. Angrist and W. N. Evans, Children and Their Parents Labor Supply : Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size, The American Economic Review, vol.88, issue.3, pp.450-477, 1998.
DOI : 10.3386/w5778

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w5778

J. D. Angrist and G. W. Imbens, Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation of Average Causal Effects in Models with Variable Treatment Intensity, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.90, issue.430, pp.431-442, 1995.
DOI : 10.2307/2291054

D. M. Arseneau and S. K. Chugh, Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets, Journal of Political Economy, vol.120, issue.5, pp.926-985, 2012.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.1358398

S. B. Aruoba, J. Fernández-villaverde, and J. F. Rubio-ramírez, Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.30, issue.12, pp.2477-2508, 2006.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.488845

URL : http://www.econ.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/comparisonnovall.pdf

R. Bachmann, S. Elstner, and E. R. Sims, Uncertainty and Economic Activity : Evidence from Business Survey Data, American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, vol.5, issue.2, pp.217-249, 2013.
DOI : 10.3386/w16143

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w16143

A. Baclet, D. Cohen, and C. Nouveau, Employment and Fear of Unemployment : A Transatlantic Comparison, Annals of Economics and Statistics / Annales d' ´ Economie et de Statistique (95/96), pp.25-41, 2009.
DOI : 10.2307/27917402

S. R. Baker, N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis, Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.131, issue.4, pp.1593-1636, 2016.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2198490

URL : http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/64986/1/dp1379.pdf

A. Balleer, New Evidence, Old Puzzles : Technology Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics, Quantitative Economics, vol.3, issue.3, pp.363-392, 2012.
DOI : 10.3982/qe35

URL : https://doi.org/10.3982/qe35

S. Basu, Procyclical Productivity, Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization ?, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.111, pp.719-751, 1996.
DOI : 10.3386/w5336

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w5336

S. Basu and B. Bundick, Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand, 2014.

S. Basu, J. G. Fernald, and M. S. Kimball, Are Technology Improvements Contractionary ?, The American Economic Review, vol.96, issue.5, pp.1418-1448, 2006.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.137860

URL : http://post.economics.harvard.edu/hier/2002papers/HIER1986.pdf

G. Bekaert, M. Hoerova, and M. L. Duca, Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.60, issue.7, pp.771-788, 2013.

B. Bernanke, Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.98, issue.1, pp.85-107, 1983.
DOI : 10.3386/w0502

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w0502

B. Bernanke and A. Blinder, The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission, The American Economic Review, vol.82, issue.4, pp.901-921, 1992.
DOI : 10.3386/w3487

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w3487

O. Blanchard and J. Galí, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy : A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment, American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, vol.2, issue.2, pp.1-30, 2010.
DOI : 10.3386/w13897

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w13897

O. J. Blanchard and P. Diamond, The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol.21, issue.2, pp.85-156, 1990.

O. J. Blanchard and P. Diamond, The Flow Approach to Labor Markets, The American Economic Review, vol.82, issue.2, pp.354-359, 1992.
DOI : 10.3386/w4000

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w4000

O. J. Blanchard and D. Quah, The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances, American Economic Review, vol.79, issue.4, pp.655-73, 1989.
DOI : 10.3386/w2737

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w2737

N. Bloom, The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks, Econometrica, vol.77, issue.3, pp.623-685, 2009.
DOI : 10.3386/w13385

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w13385

N. Bloom, Fluctuations in Uncertainty, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.28, issue.2, pp.153-76, 2014.

N. Bloom, M. Floetotto, I. Saporta-eksten, and S. J. Terry, Really Uncertain Business Cycles, 2012.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2423516

URL : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=2423516

R. Blundell, A. Bozio, and G. Laroque, Extensive and Intensive Margins of Labour Supply : Work and Working Hours in the US, the UK and France, Fiscal Studies, vol.34, issue.1, pp.1-29, 2013.

B. Born and J. Pfeifer, Policy risk and the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.68, pp.68-85, 2014.

H. Braun, R. D. Bock, and R. Dicecio, Supply Shocks, Demand Shocks, and Labor Market Fluctuations, 2007.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.979306

URL : http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/09/05/Braun.pdf

M. Burda and C. Wyplosz, Gross Worker and Job Flows in Europe, European Economic Review, vol.38, issue.6, pp.1287-1315, 1994.
DOI : 10.1016/0014-2921(94)90076-0

K. Burdett and D. T. Mortensen, Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment, International Economic Review, vol.39, issue.2, pp.257-273, 1998.
DOI : 10.2307/2527292

M. Cacciatore and F. Ravenna, Uncertainty and the Business Cycle, 2015.

J. Caceres-delpiano, Can We Still Learn Something From the Relationship Between Fertility and Mother's Employment ? Evidence From Developing Countries, Demography, vol.49, issue.1, pp.151-168, 2012.

G. Caggiano, E. Castelnuovo, and N. Groshenny, Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.67, pp.78-92, 2014.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2437769

G. A. Calvo, Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.12, issue.3, pp.383-398, 1983.
DOI : 10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0

A. Campolmi and S. Gnocchi, Labor market participation, unemployment and monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.79, pp.17-29, 2016.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.03.001

URL : https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/95708/1/780535375.pdf

F. Canova, D. Lopez-salido, and C. Michelacci, The Ins and Outs of Unemployment : an Analysis Conditional on Technology Shocks, The Economic Journal, vol.123, issue.569, pp.515-539, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02548.x

URL : http://repositori.upf.edu/bitstream/10230/6055/1/1213.pdf

A. Cesa-bianchi, M. H. Pesaran, and A. Rebucci, Uncertainty and Economic Activity : A Global Perspective, vol.4736, 2014.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2533589

URL : https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/115465/1/IDB-WP-510.pdf

V. Chari, P. J. Kehoe, and E. R. Mcgrattan, are structural {VARs} with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory ?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.55, issue.8, pp.1337-1352, 2008.

A. Charles, O. Darné, and F. Tripier, Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy : Evidence from a composite uncertainty indicator, 2015.

A. Chassamboulli, Labor-market volatility in a matching model with worker heterogeneity and endogenous separations, Labour Economics, vol.24, pp.217-229, 2013.

L. J. Christiano, M. Eichenbaum, and R. Vigfusson, What Happens After a Technology Shock ?, 2003.

L. J. Christiano, M. S. Eichenbaum, and M. Trabandt, , 2013.

K. Christoffel, K. Kuester, and T. Linzert, The Role of Labor Markets for Euro Area Monetary Policy, European Economic Review, vol.53, issue.8, pp.908-936, 2009.

A. Chéron and F. Langot, Labor market search and real business cycles : reconciling Nash bargaining with the real wage dynamics, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.7, issue.2, pp.476-493, 2004.

R. Clarida, J. Galí, and M. Gertler, The Science of Monetary Policy : A New Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.37, issue.4, pp.1661-1707, 1999.

H. L. Cole and R. Rogerson, Can the Mortensen-Pissarides Matching Model Match the Business-Cycle Facts, International Economic Review, vol.40, issue.4, pp.933-959, 1999.

J. S. Costain and M. Reiter, Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.32, issue.4, pp.1120-1155, 2008.

G. Cruces and S. Galiani, Fertility and Female Labor Supply in Latin America : New Causal Evidence, Labour Economics, vol.14, issue.3, pp.565-573, 2007.

M. R. Darby, J. C. Haltiwanger, and M. W. Plant, The Ins and Outs of Unemployment : The Ins Win, 1986.

S. Davis, J. Faberman, and J. Haltiwanger, The Flow Approach to Labor Markets : New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.20, issue.3, pp.3-26, 2006.

S. J. Davis and J. C. Haltiwanger, Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.107, issue.3, pp.819-63, 1992.

L. Dedola and S. Neri, What does a Technology Shock do ? A VAR Analysis with Model-Based Sign Restrictions, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.54, issue.2, pp.512-549, 2007.

W. J. Den-haan, G. Ramey, and J. Watson, Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks, American Economic Review, vol.90, issue.3, pp.482-498, 2000.

P. A. Diamond, A model of price adjustment, Journal of Economic Theory, vol.3, issue.2, pp.156-168, 1971.

P. A. Diamond, Mobility Costs, Frictional Unemployment, and Efficiency, Journal of Political Economy, vol.89, issue.4, pp.798-812, 1981.

Y. Dong and A. Lewbel, A Simple Estimator for Binary Choice Models with Endogenous Regressors, Econometric Reviews, vol.34, issue.1-2, pp.82-105, 2015.

Y. Dubois, J. Hairault, T. Le-barbanchon, and T. Sopraseuth, , 2011.

A. Durand, La pauvreté et les inégalités ont encore augmenté en France en, 2015.

M. Ebell, On the cyclicality of unemployment : Resurrecting the participation margin, Labour Economics, vol.18, issue.6, pp.822-836, 2011.

A. Ebenstein, When Is the Local Average Treatment Close to the Average ? Evidence from Fertility and Labor Supply, The Journal of Human Resources, vol.44, issue.4, pp.955-975, 2009.

M. W. Elsby, B. Hobijn, and A. , Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.95, issue.2, pp.530-548, 2013.
DOI : 10.24148/wp2009-04

URL : http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp09-04bk.pdf

M. W. Elsby, B. Hobijn, and A. Sahin, On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.72, pp.64-82, 2015.

M. W. Elsby, R. Michaels, and D. Ratner, The Beveridge Curve : A Survey, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.53, issue.3, pp.571-630, 2015.
DOI : 10.1257/jel.53.3.571

URL : https://www.pure.ed.ac.uk/ws/files/17842850/Elsby_Michaels_Ratner_JEL_Jul_2014.pdf

M. W. Elsby, R. Michaels, and G. Solon, The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment, American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, vol.1, issue.1, pp.84-110, 2009.

M. W. Elsby, J. C. Smith, and J. Wadsworth, The Role of Worker Flows in the Dynamics and Distribution of UK Unemployment, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol.27, issue.2, pp.338-363, 2011.

C. J. Erceg and A. T. Levin, Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.46, issue.S2, pp.3-49, 2014.

C. L. Evans, Productivity shocks and real business cycles, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.29, issue.2, pp.191-208, 1992.
DOI : 10.1016/0304-3932(92)90012-q

J. Faust and E. M. Leeper, When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results ?, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol.15, issue.3, pp.345-353, 1997.
DOI : 10.2307/1392338

J. Fernández-villaverde, P. Guerrón-quintana, K. Kuester, and J. Rubio-ramírez, Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity, American Economic Review, vol.105, issue.11, pp.3352-84, 2015.

J. Fernández-villaverde, P. Guerrón-quintana, J. F. Rubio-ramírez, and M. Uribe, Risk Matters : The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks, The American Economic Review, vol.101, issue.6, pp.2530-2561, 2011.

C. Foroni, F. Furlanetto, and A. Lepetit, Labour supply factors and economic fluctuations, 2015.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2616782

N. Francis and V. A. Ramey, Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead ? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.52, issue.8, pp.1379-1399, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.08.009

URL : http://econ.ucsd.edu/~vramey/research/technolo903.pdf

M. Frenette, How Does the Stork Delegate Work ? Childbearing and the Gender Division of Paid and Unpaid Labour, Journal of Population Economics, vol.24, issue.3, pp.895-910, 2011.

R. Fry and A. Pagan, Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions : A Critical Review, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.49, issue.4, pp.938-960, 2011.
DOI : 10.1257/jel.49.4.938

URL : http://people.anu.edu.au/renee.fry/fry and pagan 2009.pdf

S. Fujita, Dynamics of Worker Flows and Vacancies : Evidence from the Sign Restriction Approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.26, issue.1, pp.89-121, 2011.

S. Fujita, On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate". Research Rap, 2014.

S. Fujita and G. Ramey, The Cyclicality of Separation and Job Finding Rates, International Economic Review, vol.50, issue.2, pp.415-430, 2009.

S. Fujita and G. Ramey, Exogenous versus Endogenous Separation, American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, vol.4, issue.4, pp.68-93, 2012.

F. , P. , and A. Guay, The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock : A Two-Step Structural VAR Approach, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.41, issue.5, pp.987-1013, 2009.

J. Galí, of Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol.3, pp.487-546, 2010.

J. Gali, Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle : Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations ?, American Economic Review, vol.89, issue.1, pp.249-271, 1999.

J. Gali, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle : An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications, 2008.

M. Gertler, L. Sala, and A. Trigari, An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.40, issue.8, pp.1713-1764, 2008.

M. Gertler and A. Trigari, Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining, Journal of Political Economy, vol.117, issue.1, pp.38-86, 2009.

P. Gomes, Labour Market Flows : Facts from the United Kingdom, Labour Economics, vol.19, issue.2, pp.165-175, 2012.

M. Goujon, L'indice de développement humain : uné evaluation pour la réunion, Région et Développement, vol.27, 2008.

E. Guglielminetti, The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on the Labor Market : A Search Approach, 2015.

C. Haefke, M. Sonntag, and T. Van-rens, Wage rigidity and job creation, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.60, issue.8, pp.887-899, 2013.

M. Hagedorn and I. Manovskii, The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.4, pp.1692-1706, 2008.

J. Hairault, T. L. Barbanchon, and T. Sopraseuth, The cyclicality of the separation and job finding rates in France, European Economic Review, vol.76, pp.60-84, 2015.

J. Hairault, F. Langot, and S. Osotimehin, Matching frictions, unemployment dynamics and the cost of business cycles, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.13, issue.4, pp.759-779, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00516832

J. Hairault and A. Zhutova, The Cyclicality of Labor Market Flows : A MultipleShock Approach, Discussion Paper Series, vol.8558, 2014.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01802891

R. Hall, The Relation netween Price and Marginal Cost, Journal of Political Economy, vol.96, pp.921-947, 1988.

R. E. Hall, Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness, The American Economic Review, vol.95, issue.1, pp.50-65, 2005.

R. E. Hall, Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol.20, issue.1, pp.101-137, 2005.

R. E. Hall and P. R. Milgrom, The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.4, pp.1653-74, 2008.

G. D. Hansen, Indivisible labor and the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.16, issue.3, pp.309-327, 1985.

M. S. Hertweck and O. Sigrist, The Ins and Outs of German Unemployment : a Transatlantic Perspective, Oxford Economic Papers, 2015.

L. Hirvonen, The Effect of Children on Earnings Using Exogenous Variations in Family Size : Swedish Evidence, 2010.

C. Hupkau and M. Leturcq, Fertility and Labor Supply : New Evidence from the UK, 2016.

M. Iacovou, Fertility and female labour supply, ISER Working Paper Series, 2001.

Y. Jeauneau and C. Nouël, Transitions Annuelles au sens du BIT sur le Marché du Travail, 2011.

S. R. Jones and W. C. Riddell, Gross Flows of Labour in Canada and the United States, Canadian Public Policy / Analyse de Politiques, vol.24, pp.103-120, 1998.

P. Jung and K. Kuester, The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.35, issue.10, pp.1744-1768, 2011.

P. Jung and K. Kuester, Optimal Labor-Market Policy in Recessions, American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, vol.7, issue.2, pp.124-56, 2015.

K. Jurado, S. C. Ludvigson, and S. Ng, Measuring Uncertainty". American Economic Review, vol.105, issue.3, pp.1177-1216, 2015.

R. G. King, C. I. Plosser, and S. T. Rebelo, Production, growth and business cycles : I. the basic neoclassical model, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.21, issue.2-3, pp.195-232, 1988.

G. Koop, M. Pesaran, and S. M. Potter, Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models, Journal of Econometrics, vol.74, issue.1, pp.119-147, 1996.

S. Korenman and D. Neumark, Marriage, Motherhood, and Wages, The Journal of Human Resources, vol.27, issue.2, pp.233-255, 1992.

P. Krusell, T. Mukoyama, A. , and A. A. Smith, Revisiting the welfare effects of eliminating business cycles, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.12, issue.3, pp.393-404, 2009.

P. Krusell and A. A. Smith, On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.2, issue.1, pp.245-272, 1999.

F. E. Kydland and E. C. Prescott, Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica, vol.50, issue.6, pp.1345-1370, 1982.

C. Landais, P. Michaillat, and E. Saez, A Macroeconomic Theory of Optimal Unemployment Insurance, 2010.

T. Le-barbanchon, B. Ourliac, and O. Simon, Les marchés du travail français et américain face aux chocs conjoncturels des années 1986à1986à 2007 : une modélisation DSGE, 2011.

S. Leduc and Z. Liu, Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.82, pp.20-35, 2016.

A. Lewbel, Y. Dong, and T. T. Yang, Comparing features of convenient estimators for binary choice models with endogenous regressors, Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'´ economique, vol.45, issue.3, pp.809-829, 2012.

H. Li, J. Yi, and J. Zhang, Fertility, Household Structure, and Parental Labor Supply : Evidence from Rural China, Discussion Paper Series, vol.9342, 2015.

C. Lin and H. Miyamoto, Gross Worker Flows and Unemployment Dynamics in Japan, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol.26, issue.1, pp.44-61, 2012.

S. A. Lippman and J. Mccall, The economics of job search : a survey, Economic Inquiry, vol.14, issue.3, pp.347-368, 1976.

J. B. Long and C. I. Plosser, Real Business Cycles, Journal of Political Economy, vol.91, issue.1, pp.39-69, 1983.

J. Lopez-de-lerida, The Impact of Exogenous Variation in Family Size on Women's Labour Force Participation, 2005.

R. Lucas, Models of Business Cycles, 1987.

R. E. Lucas, Econometric policy evaluation : A critique, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol.1, pp.19-46, 1976.

R. E. Lucas and L. A. Rapping, Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation, Journal of Political Economy, vol.77, issue.5, pp.721-754, 1969.

P. Lundborg, E. Plug, and A. W. Rasmussen, Fertility Effects on Female Labor Supply : IV Evidence from IVF Treatments, Discussion Paper Series, vol.8609, 2014.

S. Lundström and C. Särndal, Calibration as a Standard Method for Treatment of Nonresponse, Journal of Official Statistics, vol.15, issue.2, pp.305-327, 1999.

E. Maurin and J. Moschion, The Social Multiplier and Labor Market Participation of Mothers, American Economic Journal : Applied Economics, vol.1, issue.1, pp.251-72, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00754400

J. Mccall, Economics of Information and Job Search, vol.84, pp.113-126, 1970.

M. Merz, Search in the labor market and the real business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.36, issue.2, pp.269-300, 1995.

C. Michelacci and D. Lopez-salido, Technology Shocks and Job Flows, vol.74, pp.1195-1227, 2007.

K. Mitman and S. Rabinovich, Pro-Cyclical Unemployment Benefits ? Optimal Policy in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model, SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 1831334, 2011.

D. T. Mortensen, Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games, The American Economic Review, vol.72, issue.5, pp.968-979, 1982.

D. T. Mortensen, Job search and labor market analysis, vol.2, pp.849-919, 1986.

D. T. Mortensen and C. A. Pissarides, Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.61, issue.3, pp.397-415, 1994.

D. T. Mortensen and C. A. Pissarides, Job reallocation, employment fluctuations and unemployment, Part B of Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol.1, pp.1171-1228, 1999.

D. T. Mortensen and C. A. Pissarides, New developments in models of search in the labor market, Part B of Handbook of Labor Economics, vol.3, pp.2567-2627, 1999.

J. Moschion, Offre de travail des m` eres en France : l'effet causal du passage de deuxà deux`deuxà trois enfants, pp.51-78, 2009.

J. Moschion, Reconciling Work and Family Life : The Effect of the French Paid Parental Leave, Annals of Economics and Statistics, pp.217-246, 2010.

H. Mumtaz and F. Zanetti, Neutral Technology Shocks and the Dynamics of Labor Input : Results from an Agnostic Identification, International Economic Review, vol.53, issue.1, pp.235-254, 2012.

C. J. Nekarda, Understanding Unemployment Dynamics : the Role of Time Aggregation, 2009.

. Oecd, OECD Employment Outlook, 2004.

. Oecd, OECD Employment Outlook, 2014.

E. Pappa, The Effects of Fiscal Shocks on Employment and the Real Wage, International Economic Review, vol.50, issue.1, pp.217-244, 2009.

G. Peersman, What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown ? Evidence based on Vector Autoregressions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.20, issue.2, pp.185-207, 2005.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.824745

G. Peersman and R. Straub, Technology Shocks and Robust Sign Restrictions in a Euro Area SVAR, International Economic Review, vol.50, issue.3, pp.727-750, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00546.x

URL : http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp373.pdf

B. Petrongolo and C. A. Pissarides, Looking into the Black Box : A Survey of the Matching Function, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.39, issue.2, pp.390-431, 2001.

B. Petrongolo and C. A. Pissarides, The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.2, pp.256-262, 2008.

C. Pissarides, Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2000.

C. A. Pissarides, Short-Run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies, and Real Wages, The American Economic Review, vol.75, issue.4, pp.676-690, 1985.
DOI : 10.2307/3439840

URL : http://su.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:329513/FULLTEXT01

C. A. Pissarides, The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle : Is Wage Stickiness the Answer ?, Econometrica, vol.77, issue.5, pp.1339-1369, 2009.
DOI : 10.32609/0042-8736-2011-1-65-88

URL : http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0839.pdf

A. Pizzo, The Shimer(s) Puzzle in a New Keynesian Framework, vol.507, 2014.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2504407

URL : https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_507_2014.pdf

A. Pizzo, Pourquoi les frictions nominales amplifient-elles les fluctuations du chômage ?, pp.183-211, 2015.
DOI : 10.3917/rfe.151.0183

E. C. Prescott, Theory ahead of business cycle measurement, Staff Report, vol.102, 1986.
DOI : 10.4324/9780203443965.ch15

URL : http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1042.pdf

M. O. Ravn, The Consumption-Tightness Puzzle, 2006.
DOI : 10.3386/w12421

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w12421

M. O. Ravn and S. Simonelli, Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle : Structural Evidence for the United States, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol.109, issue.4, pp.743-777, 2007.

A. Riedl and F. Schoiswohl, Is there an added worker effect ? European labor supply during the crisis, Focus on European Economic Integration, issue.4, pp.71-88, 2015.

J. Robin, On the Dynamics of Unemployment and Wage Distributions, Econometrica, vol.79, issue.5, pp.1327-1355, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01024463

R. Rogerson and R. Shimer, Search in macroeconomic models of the labor market, vol.4, pp.619-700, 2011.

M. R. Rosenzweig and K. I. Wolpin, Life-Cycle Labor Supply and Fertility : Causal Inferences from Household Models, Journal of Political Economy, vol.88, issue.2, pp.328-348, 1980.
DOI : 10.1086/260868

URL : https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/160237/1/cdp310.pdf

M. R. Rosenzweig and J. Zhang, Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment ? Twins, Birth Weight and China's &quot ;One-Child&quot, Policy". Review of Economic Studies, vol.76, issue.3, pp.1149-1174, 2009.

R. J. Shiller, Why Do People Dislike Inflation ?, pp.13-70, 1997.

R. Shimer, The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies, American Economic Review, vol.95, issue.1, pp.25-49, 2005.

R. Shimer, Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.15, issue.2, pp.127-148, 2012.

J. I. Silva and J. Vázquez-grenno, The ins and outs of unemployment in a two-tier labor market, Labour Economics, vol.24, pp.161-169, 2013.

J. C. Smith, The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment, The Economic Journal, vol.121, issue.552, pp.402-444, 2011.

J. Stock and M. Yogo, Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression, pp.80-108, 2005.
DOI : 10.3386/t0284

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/t0284

C. Thomas, Search Frictions, Real Rigidities, and Inflation Dynamics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.43, issue.6, pp.1131-1164, 2011.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.1105698

URL : http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0822.pdf

A. Trigari, Journal of Money, Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics, vol.41, pp.1-33, 2009.

F. Tripier, Can the labor market search model explain the fluctuations of allocations of time ?, Economic Modelling, vol.21, issue.1, pp.131-146, 2004.

H. Uhlig, Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked ?, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol.2, issue.2-3, pp.361-371, 2004.
DOI : 10.1162/154247604323068050

H. Uhlig, What are the effects of monetary policy on output ? Results from an agnostic identification procedure, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.52, issue.2, pp.381-419, 2005.

M. Veracierto, On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.55, issue.6, pp.1143-1157, 2008.

J. Waldfogel, Understanding the "Family Gap" in Pay for Women with Children, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.12, issue.1, pp.137-156, 1998.

C. E. Walsh, Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.8, issue.4, pp.829-849, 2005.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.415600

URL : http://people.ucsc.edu/%7Ewalshc/MyPapers/labormktrrulesmar05.pdf

J. Wolfers, Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly ? Evidence from Surveys of Subjective Wellbeing, 2003.
DOI : 10.3386/w9619

URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w9619

M. Woodford, Interest and Prices, 2003.

E. Yashiv, U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Revisited". Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol.109, issue.4, pp.779-806, 2007.

F. Zanetti, Labor market institutions and aggregate fluctuations in a search and matching model, European Economic Review, vol.55, issue.5, 2011.

S. Je, . Fontaine-idriss, and . Bertrand, déclare être conscient(e) que le plagiat est un acte délictueux passible de sanctions disciplinaires. Aussi, dans le respect de la propriété intellectuelle et du droit d'auteur, je m'engage à systématiquement citer mes sources

, Signature, 2017.