Persistance de la fièvre de la Vallée du Rift à Mayotte : surveillance, modélisation et perceptions

Abstract : Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonosis, with a wide variety of potential competent vectors. During the last fifteen years, RVF caused tens of thousands of human cases, hundreds of human deaths and more than 100,000 domestic ruminant deaths in Africa and in the Arabic peninsula. After the first detection of RVF in Mayotte, an animal health surveillance network has been created in 2009, namely the SESAM. The aim of this PhD was to assess the epidemiological situation of Mayotte toward RVF in 2012-2013, to assess the persistence probability of RVF in the territory and to document farmers’ perceptions and health priorities. In 2012, RVF surveillance has been revised in order to partially renew the pool of the sentinel herds. The passive surveillance with systematic RVF detection assay on abortion and abnormal mortality was enforced. A continuous decrease in the seroprevalence was observed based on 2010-2013 data. During 2012-2013, a steady incidence rate of about 2 seroconversions per 100 animal-year was observed. This rate is much lower than the previous assessment of 18% during 2011. RVF virus was not detected in any of the 41 declared abortion cases. Surveillance performance criteria were discussed and assessed showing mainly an increase in data quality between 2010 and 2013. A SIR dynamic model was built based on vector knowledge and observed seroprevalence in Mayotte from 2008 to 2013. Estimated host-vector transmission rate was fivefold lower than expected according to current literature. Persistence probability, without reintroduction of viremic animals, was predicted to be 10% five years after virus introduction. Finally, health problem prioritization in Mayotte was studied through focus groups, gathering 164 farmers. The five main issues stated were: blackleg, ticks, a respiratory « fever/flu-like» syndrome, a dermatologic syndrome and diarrhoea. RVF was absent from the priority problems list in which abortions were ranked 9th. However abortions came first when « risk » criteria was taken into account, raising issues of cultural risk perceptions. Further surveillance and research using transdisciplinary approaches that mix mathematical modelling and the humanities should be continued with the view to assess more precisely reemergence probability in Mayotte and anticipate mitigating measures. Surveillance and research should also align with farmers’ expectations. The development of syndromic surveillance (abortion, death, etc.) requires strengthening surveillance network and identification data quality. Mayotte surveillance components should also be fully integrated within the regional and national schemes.
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Lisa Cavalerie. Persistance de la fièvre de la Vallée du Rift à Mayotte : surveillance, modélisation et perceptions. Santé. Université de la Réunion, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017LARE0027⟩. ⟨tel-01823470⟩

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