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Modélisation de la dynamique de population d une plante native (palmier babaçu) dans le cadre d'un projet de gestion durable au Brésil

Abstract : The babassu palm tree (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of the amazonian forests. The deforestation highlights henceforth this palm tree in the anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fields). The babassu is one of the "extractive" resources in Brazil: gathering activity followed by marketing of non-timber products. This activity involves people among the most disadvantaged in the country thus the importance to better manage its sustainability in a context of conflict. It is clear that knowledge of sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known and its population dynamics unstudied.This PhD work is pioneer and is a part of an Open Science interdisciplinary project of the Agropolis foundation. The objective is twofold it is to generate a model of population dynamics of the babassu palm tree validated by in situ analysis and capitalizing knowledge from various scientific communities (biologists, ecologists, mathematicians, computer scientists and economists from France and Brazil). In the long-term the model should support the recommendations for the sustainable management of the species.Our approach explicit within different models the shared knowledge about the species and the potential mathematical models as well as the societal context. This has allowed us to provide an observation model compliant with the recommendations ofOBOE (Ontology on a semantic scientific observations) for the development of data acquisition protocol. The acquisition was made in situ by the French-Brazilian partnership between 2013 and 2016 in the community of Benfica (Pará, Brazil). The perpetuation of the data was made after conception, within a spatial database taking into account the socio-economic aspect.Finally, we proposed a random matrix model having as input aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species. The probabilities of the between stages transition matrix are modeled using a hierarchical Dirichlet-Multinomial model. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. The estimation and model validation were performed with Bayesian criteria.Simulations based on the estimated parameters represent a first outline of the study of the species behavior.
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Nikolay Sirakov. Modélisation de la dynamique de population d une plante native (palmier babaçu) dans le cadre d'un projet de gestion durable au Brésil. Modélisation et simulation. Université Montpellier, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016MONTT302⟩. ⟨tel-01807940⟩

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