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Le Peak Car en Ile-de-France : étude de l’évolution de la place de l’automobile et de ses déterminants chez les franciliens depuis les années 1970

Abstract : As part of a longitudinal analysis focused on the Ile-de-France region, we approach the question of Peak Car, a research hypothesis that the cap on car use in many developed countries could be the sign of a long-term decline in automobile mobility.Using the data from the EGT and the Auto since the 1970s, we note that the limit on household mileage appeared in the early 1990s, followed by a continuous decline from 2000, and even now in the context of cheap fuel prices.In view of the Peak Car debate, we show that while fuel prices have played an important role in the reversal trend, other multidimensional factors are influencing. This is the case of the sharp decline in youth mobility. It also extends to the older age classes and could be the premise of a future change of use. Some engines of growth are also nearing completion and could reinforce the Peak Car: mobility between men and women is merging, the end of the increase in the mobility of retirees and the end social diffusion of the car. The decorrelation of the effect of income, synonymous with a saturation of the need for mobility, also takes place on motorisation. The merger of behaviour among income groups may reinforce this phenomenon.Finally, the role of opinion remains uncertain. Ecological consciousness does not seem to play on behaviour. And if the image of the automobile has evolved, it retains its useful appeal, symbol of independence and freedom and remains an essential object for trips limiting the transfer to others modes.
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Benoît Cornut. Le Peak Car en Ile-de-France : étude de l’évolution de la place de l’automobile et de ses déterminants chez les franciliens depuis les années 1970. Economies et finances. Université Paris-Est, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PESC0094⟩. ⟨tel-01807668⟩

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